Big 12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Baylor 100.0%   1   14 - 0 7 - 0 22 - 2 14 - 2 +23.2      +12.7 3 +10.4 1 69.5 189 +27.5 2 +27.8 1
10 Texas 99.7%   2   11 - 2 5 - 1 17 - 6 11 - 4 +16.8      +8.6 14 +8.2 10 69.8 178 +19.9 6 +21.1 2
14 Texas Tech 93.7%   4   11 - 4 4 - 3 17 - 9 10 - 7 +15.5      +6.4 43 +9.1 6 67.1 246 +13.7 33 +14.5 5
15 West Virginia 94.6%   4   10 - 4 3 - 3 16 - 8 8 - 7 +15.3      +7.6 22 +7.7 14 71.6 126 +15.5 21 +12.0 6
16 Kansas 94.7%   4   9 - 5 4 - 4 15 - 9 10 - 7 +15.2      +7.9 20 +7.3 16 68.7 211 +16.5 13 +15.0 3
20 Oklahoma 81.4%   6   9 - 4 5 - 3 14 - 9 10 - 7 +14.3      +8.0 18 +6.3 32 70.9 147 +13.3 37 +14.9 4
39 Oklahoma St. 72.6%   9   9 - 4 3 - 4 14 - 9 8 - 8 +11.7      +6.0 48 +5.7 40 73.4 81 +14.5 27 +10.9 7
102 TCU 3.2%   9 - 5 2 - 4 12 - 13 5 - 11 +4.9      +2.6 105 +2.3 113 65.6 275 +10.1 62 +9.0 8
111 Iowa St. 0.1%   2 - 7 0 - 5 5 - 14 2 - 12 +4.4      +3.1 92 +1.3 136 72.2 112 -7.9 278 -9.0 10
157 Kansas St. 0.0%   5 - 10 1 - 7 6 - 19 2 - 15 +0.4      -0.7 186 +1.1 142 64.1 306 -0.2 169 +0.4 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Baylor 1.0 95.9 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas 3.0 6.2 43.2 21.5 13.4 9.2 4.5 1.8 0.1
Texas Tech 3.8 2.4 24.4 23.1 18.2 15.0 10.3 5.8 0.8 0.0
West Virginia 5.0 0.3 7.2 12.5 15.1 19.8 25.8 16.8 2.6 0.0 0.0
Kansas 3.7 1.6 22.4 26.2 22.1 15.8 8.0 3.6 0.2
Oklahoma 3.6 2.7 26.6 23.8 20.0 15.5 7.8 3.5 0.2
Oklahoma St. 5.9 0.1 2.2 5.4 9.3 15.7 26.3 34.1 6.5 0.4 0.0
TCU 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 5.3 14.9 66.4 9.3 1.7
Iowa St. 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 16.1 51.2 29.9
Kansas St. 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.6 50.2 42.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Baylor 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.2 15.5 28.7 32.1 17.2
Texas 11 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.7 6.0 13.7 21.7 24.8 19.7 9.7 2.4
Texas Tech 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.8 13.0 20.9 24.0 19.6 10.7 3.6 0.5
West Virginia 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 2.4 7.7 16.8 24.4 24.0 16.0 6.9 1.3
Kansas 10 - 8 0.1 0.8 3.8 11.7 22.3 28.1 21.2 9.9 2.0
Oklahoma 10 - 8 0.1 0.8 3.9 11.5 20.8 25.9 21.3 11.3 3.7 0.6
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.1 1.3 6.2 15.3 24.4 25.9 17.6 7.3 1.8 0.1
TCU 5 - 13 2.6 12.3 24.3 27.4 19.7 9.5 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 2 - 16 8.6 21.8 27.3 21.6 12.7 5.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 2 - 16 37.6 36.5 18.3 6.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Baylor 95.9% 88.3 6.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas 6.2% 2.0 3.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 2.4% 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Kansas 1.6% 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 2.7% 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.0% 0.0
Iowa St.
Kansas St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Baylor 100.0% 55.3% 44.7% 1   76.7 21.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Texas 99.7% 12.3% 87.4% 2   18.5 29.0 21.6 13.9 7.7 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.7%
Texas Tech 93.7% 8.2% 85.4% 4   3.4 9.0 15.4 17.4 15.4 11.8 7.2 4.4 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 93.1%
West Virginia 94.6% 7.3% 87.3% 4   4.5 10.7 14.8 17.1 13.3 9.5 6.7 4.5 3.9 3.3 3.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 94.2%
Kansas 94.7% 8.0% 86.7% 4   3.1 8.9 14.6 15.8 14.4 10.2 8.0 5.5 4.5 3.1 2.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 94.2%
Oklahoma 81.4% 6.3% 75.1% 6   1.3 3.6 7.9 10.6 12.0 10.9 8.5 6.5 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 18.6 80.2%
Oklahoma St. 72.6% 2.4% 70.2% 9   0.1 0.6 2.1 3.8 6.8 9.1 9.9 8.9 7.9 6.9 7.4 7.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 27.4 71.9%
TCU 3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.8 3.1%
Iowa St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Kansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Baylor 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.9% 84.1% 66.9% 49.1% 33.3% 21.2%
Texas 99.7% 0.3% 99.6% 87.6% 56.9% 30.6% 14.8% 6.6% 2.6%
Texas Tech 93.7% 2.6% 92.6% 70.5% 39.7% 18.3% 8.0% 3.1% 1.1%
West Virginia 94.6% 3.8% 93.1% 71.0% 39.9% 18.6% 8.3% 3.2% 1.2%
Kansas 94.7% 4.6% 92.9% 69.5% 37.7% 17.2% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1%
Oklahoma 81.4% 6.6% 78.8% 53.8% 26.7% 11.7% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
Oklahoma St. 72.6% 10.3% 67.5% 36.5% 13.4% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
TCU 3.2% 1.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.4 0.0 0.5 8.8 42.2 47.4 1.2
1st Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.9 12.4 46.0 40.0 0.7
2nd Round 100.0% 4.9 0.0 0.9 7.6 25.5 38.3 23.3 4.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.4% 3.0 0.6 6.8 25.1 36.4 23.8 6.6 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 92.1% 1.7 7.9 35.7 39.2 14.8 2.3 0.1 0.0
Final Four 72.4% 0.9 27.6 52.4 18.2 1.8 0.0
Final Game 47.8% 0.5 52.2 43.8 3.9
Champion 28.0% 0.3 72.0 28.0