Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Villanova 99.5%   2   10 - 1 5 - 0 19 - 4 14 - 3 +18.0      +12.0 4 +6.0 36 64.5 296 +21.5 4 +23.7 1
12 Creighton 94.1%   5   11 - 4 7 - 3 18 - 7 14 - 6 +16.0      +9.9 9 +6.2 35 71.3 136 +13.6 34 +14.1 3
24 Connecticut 70.6%   9   7 - 3 4 - 3 14 - 8 11 - 8 +13.0      +6.4 42 +6.6 29 64.1 307 +13.6 35 +11.7 4
42 Seton Hall 56.4%   11   9 - 6 6 - 3 14 - 10 11 - 7 +11.5      +7.4 25 +4.1 69 69.2 198 +12.2 46 +14.8 2
47 Xavier 68.4%   11   10 - 2 3 - 2 15 - 7 8 - 7 +10.9      +5.8 51 +5.2 52 70.3 163 +15.6 20 +11.1 5
55 Providence 33.0%   8 - 7 4 - 5 13 - 12 9 - 10 +10.3      +6.3 44 +3.9 71 67.5 235 +11.2 54 +10.9 6
64 Marquette 16.5%   8 - 7 4 - 5 12 - 12 8 - 10 +9.0      +5.8 52 +3.3 89 68.8 206 +9.1 68 +9.0 8
78 St. John's 3.0%   9 - 7 3 - 6 12 - 13 6 - 12 +7.2      +4.8 68 +2.4 110 80.1 13 +7.4 77 +6.1 9
80 Butler 2.2%   5 - 7 4 - 5 9 - 13 8 - 11 +7.0      +2.0 119 +5.0 54 61.1 337 +6.6 82 +9.6 7
95 DePaul 0.8%   3 - 5 1 - 5 6 - 12 4 - 12 +5.6      +0.3 163 +5.3 48 73.9 73 +2.6 134 +1.4 10
108 Georgetown 0.3%   3 - 8 1 - 5 6 - 16 4 - 13 +4.5      +2.1 111 +2.4 109 73.2 87 -1.2 177 +0.7 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Villanova 1.7 55.9 27.8 10.8 3.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Creighton 1.6 52.1 35.4 9.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Connecticut 3.6 8.3 18.9 29.1 18.9 11.3 7.1 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 3.7 4.4 15.2 28.6 26.5 14.2 7.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
Xavier 5.9 0.2 1.6 6.6 14.3 20.0 19.5 17.2 12.4 5.8 2.0 0.5
Providence 5.1 0.7 4.7 14.7 20.7 19.9 17.3 12.0 6.4 2.9 0.6 0.1
Marquette 6.3 0.1 1.0 4.8 11.2 16.5 19.4 20.3 16.2 8.1 2.2 0.2
St. John's 8.3 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 7.5 12.7 21.4 32.1 16.5 3.8
Butler 6.6 0.1 0.8 3.5 9.0 14.7 18.6 19.9 18.7 10.7 3.4 0.7
DePaul 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 4.1 8.7 19.0 34.4 31.3
Georgetown 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 6.4 14.5 31.9 42.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Villanova 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.9 11.2 17.6 22.4 20.8 13.9 4.8
Creighton 14 - 6 0.0 0.4 1.6 5.2 11.8 20.1 25.4 21.4 11.2 2.9
Connecticut 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 6.1 11.1 16.2 19.6 18.4 14.0 7.4 2.9 0.6
Seton Hall 11 - 9 0.2 1.6 6.1 13.3 20.7 23.3 18.8 11.3 4.0 0.7
Xavier 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 3.3 8.8 15.3 20.9 22.0 16.3 9.0 3.0 0.5
Providence 9 - 11 0.1 1.1 4.2 10.3 16.8 20.7 20.1 15.2 8.1 2.9 0.5
Marquette 8 - 12 0.8 4.3 11.4 19.6 23.3 20.1 12.9 5.8 1.6 0.3
St. John's 6 - 14 3.4 12.0 21.3 24.5 20.1 11.8 5.2 1.5 0.3 0.0
Butler 8 - 12 1.3 6.2 13.9 20.8 22.6 18.1 10.7 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
DePaul 4 - 16 2.6 9.9 19.6 23.9 20.6 13.5 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 4 - 16 4.7 14.4 22.0 22.3 17.9 10.7 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 55.9% 40.3 13.4 1.9 0.2 0.0
Creighton 52.1% 35.6 14.3 2.0 0.2 0.0
Connecticut 8.3% 3.4 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 4.4% 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
Xavier 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Providence 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marquette 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. John's
Butler 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DePaul
Georgetown


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 99.5% 39.0% 60.5% 2   22.0 27.3 19.6 12.3 7.1 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.2%
Creighton 94.1% 26.1% 68.0% 5   1.5 4.9 11.2 13.0 14.2 13.6 11.9 9.6 5.8 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.9 92.0%
Connecticut 70.6% 12.0% 58.5% 9   0.7 1.7 3.2 4.4 5.6 6.1 9.1 9.5 8.8 7.6 7.1 5.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 29.4 66.6%
Seton Hall 56.4% 7.4% 49.1% 11   0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.8 7.1 8.3 7.3 6.8 7.5 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 43.6 53.0%
Xavier 68.4% 5.2% 63.2% 11   0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.1 7.8 9.9 10.2 10.2 6.8 0.9 0.1 31.6 66.7%
Providence 33.0% 4.7% 28.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.8 4.6 4.9 6.7 6.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 67.0 29.7%
Marquette 16.5% 2.7% 13.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.9 2.3 3.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 83.5 14.1%
St. John's 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.0 2.1%
Butler 2.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 97.8 1.0%
DePaul 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.3%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Villanova 99.5% 0.3% 99.4% 88.8% 60.7% 36.1% 19.2% 9.6% 4.5%
Creighton 94.1% 1.8% 93.4% 69.2% 37.8% 18.2% 8.4% 3.7% 1.4%
Connecticut 70.6% 7.6% 67.3% 40.6% 17.1% 7.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Seton Hall 56.4% 8.9% 52.2% 27.6% 9.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Xavier 68.4% 9.0% 63.9% 32.1% 11.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Providence 33.0% 8.8% 28.7% 13.5% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Marquette 16.5% 5.4% 13.7% 5.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's 3.0% 1.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.4 0.0 0.9 12.1 39.6 36.9 9.8 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.2 0.0 1.7 17.2 43.3 31.5 6.0 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 99.6% 2.8 0.4 7.3 30.2 40.2 18.6 3.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 87.4% 1.4 12.6 43.2 34.1 9.1 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 58.1% 0.7 41.9 45.9 11.2 0.9 0.0
Final Four 31.5% 0.3 68.5 29.1 2.4 0.0 0.0
Final Game 15.0% 0.2 85.0 14.7 0.2
Champion 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5