Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
136 Eastern Washington 1.8%   3 - 6 3 - 2 10 - 9 10 - 5 +2.1      +2.6 104 -0.5 183 79.4 20 -2.5 194 -1.1 3
156 Weber St. 4.1%   4 - 4 2 - 2 12 - 8 10 - 6 +0.4      +0.4 159 +0.1 168 73.9 71 -1.6 183 -2.7 5
164 Montana 10.3%   4 - 8 3 - 5 11 - 13 10 - 10 -0.3      -2.0 219 +1.7 127 65.7 271 -5.1 237 -7.6 8
182 Montana St. 50.7%   16   7 - 3 6 - 0 14 - 8 13 - 5 -1.4      -3.1 255 +1.8 124 68.0 224 +3.7 122 +11.5 1
193 Southern Utah 25.7%   8 - 3 6 - 2 14 - 7 12 - 6 -2.4      +2.0 114 -4.4 292 72.0 121 +4.1 117 +4.9 2
203 Northern Colorado 3.4%   6 - 7 5 - 5 11 - 13 10 - 10 -3.0      -2.1 225 -0.9 198 66.0 266 -4.2 223 -4.7 7
215 Sacramento St. 3.0%   4 - 3 4 - 2 9 - 10 9 - 9 -3.9      -1.7 209 -2.2 227 60.4 341 -3.4 205 -3.1 6
258 Portland St. 0.0%   2 - 7 2 - 4 7 - 12 7 - 9 -6.0      -4.4 281 -1.6 217 75.6 44 -9.8 301 -8.0 9
277 Idaho St. 1.2%   5 - 7 5 - 3 9 - 13 9 - 9 -7.2      -3.8 269 -3.4 268 62.6 327 -4.3 225 -1.1 4
301 Northern Arizona 0.0%   4 - 11 3 - 6 7 - 18 6 - 13 -8.8      -2.0 224 -6.8 330 61.0 338 -9.2 289 -9.7 10
336 Idaho 0.0%   0 - 11 0 - 8 2 - 21 2 - 18 -13.8      -6.4 320 -7.4 333 69.6 186 -20.7 341 -21.8 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Eastern Washington 4.2 7.1 13.6 19.3 19.0 15.6 11.2 7.6 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 4.5 8.6 13.6 16.1 14.4 13.0 12.0 9.8 7.1 4.0 1.3 0.1
Montana 4.2 11.7 15.1 16.8 14.2 12.6 10.8 8.4 6.2 3.8 0.5 0.0
Montana St. 2.0 55.3 19.0 10.2 6.2 4.2 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 2.5 35.1 28.8 14.2 8.6 5.8 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Northern Colorado 4.5 7.3 13.0 14.9 16.3 15.5 13.3 9.3 6.0 3.5 0.8 0.0
Sacramento St. 5.7 5.3 7.5 8.9 10.0 11.7 13.0 15.2 15.1 10.0 3.4 0.0
Portland St. 8.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.6 6.9 11.3 17.2 29.6 23.3 2.1
Idaho St. 5.8 2.7 5.2 7.9 10.7 13.9 17.1 19.8 15.9 6.2 0.6 0.0
Northern Arizona 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.5 6.3 12.4 26.4 47.1 1.4
Idaho 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 6.8 91.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Eastern Washington 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 7.8 15.3 23.4 25.2 17.6 6.6
Weber St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.8 10.3 15.9 19.6 19.4 15.2 8.0 2.1
Montana 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.7 9.3 14.9 19.0 19.3 15.7 10.0 4.2 0.9
Montana St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 7.1 12.1 16.9 19.7 17.7 12.6 6.7 2.4 0.4
Southern Utah 12 - 8 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.2 10.5 16.4 20.1 20.3 15.0 7.9 2.2
Northern Colorado 10 - 10 0.2 1.3 4.6 10.7 18.1 22.0 20.2 13.7 6.9 2.0 0.4
Sacramento St. 9 - 11 0.5 2.4 6.9 12.8 17.6 18.7 16.5 11.9 7.3 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
Portland St. 7 - 13 0.4 2.6 7.6 14.1 19.1 20.6 17.3 10.6 5.4 1.9 0.3
Idaho St. 9 - 11 0.5 4.0 12.4 20.7 23.9 19.5 11.9 5.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
Northern Arizona 6 - 14 4.8 14.3 23.5 24.2 17.6 9.7 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho 2 - 18 17.6 28.6 24.8 16.1 8.1 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Eastern Washington 7.1% 1.8 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 8.6% 3.0 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Montana 11.7% 5.0 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 55.3% 38.8 12.1 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 35.1% 20.2 10.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 7.3% 2.5 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 5.3% 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 2.7% 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Eastern Washington 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 98.2 0.0%
Weber St. 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.1 95.9 0.1%
Montana 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.8 6.9 89.7 0.0%
Montana St. 50.7% 50.7% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.5 3.3 14.9 32.0 49.3 0.0%
Southern Utah 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.6 9.5 13.3 74.3 0.0%
Northern Colorado 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 96.6 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 97.0 0.0%
Portland St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Eastern Washington 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 4.1% 0.1% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 10.3% 3.6% 9.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 50.7% 17.0% 44.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 25.7% 5.7% 23.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 3.4% 1.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.0% 0.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 88.9% 0.9 11.1 88.8 0.0
2nd Round 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0