Big South
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
112 Winthrop 61.8%   13   15 - 0 12 - 0 20 - 1 17 - 1 +4.2      +2.6 106 +1.6 128 84.2 4 +13.2 39 +7.2 1
198 Gardner-Webb 10.4%   4 - 9 3 - 5 9 - 10 8 - 6 -2.8      +0.3 161 -3.1 258 68.3 219 -7.2 270 -8.5 6
224 Radford 10.7%   9 - 6 9 - 1 13 - 10 13 - 5 -4.2      -2.7 240 -1.6 215 61.3 336 -3.5 208 +2.2 2
234 UNC Asheville 8.4%   8 - 7 7 - 3 12 - 11 11 - 7 -4.8      -0.4 178 -4.4 290 73.4 83 -5.7 253 -2.3 3
275 Campbell 3.1%   6 - 9 4 - 6 10 - 11 8 - 8 -7.1      -3.0 251 -4.1 283 65.7 272 -6.7 265 -7.2 5
282 Longwood 3.0%   5 - 12 4 - 8 9 - 14 8 - 10 -7.5      -4.2 278 -3.3 265 62.9 321 -11.0 312 -10.4 7
305 High Point 1.3%   3 - 8 1 - 5 8 - 13 6 - 10 -9.2      -5.0 300 -4.2 286 66.3 260 -10.5 306 -16.6 10
309 Hampton 1.7%   7 - 8 6 - 4 10 - 13 9 - 9 -9.7      -5.1 302 -4.6 296 75.3 49 -6.7 267 -4.4 4
317 South Carolina Upstate 0.7%   3 - 10 3 - 5 5 - 16 5 - 11 -10.6      -4.7 293 -5.8 317 70.4 159 -12.2 316 -10.5 8
335 Charleston Southern 0.2%   0 - 11 0 - 8 3 - 18 3 - 15 -13.6      -9.2 335 -4.4 291 69.0 200 -23.3 345 -22.7 11
340 Presbyterian 0.1%   2 - 7 1 - 5 5 - 12 4 - 10 -14.3      -8.4 332 -5.9 318 64.3 299 -13.7 324 -12.4 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Winthrop 1.0 97.8 2.2 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 5.7 1.4 15.4 34.3 22.2 14.9 8.3 3.0 0.5 0.0
Radford 2.1 6.1 80.3 12.6 0.9 0.0
UNC Asheville 3.0 0.3 24.4 59.1 12.0 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Campbell 5.8 0.1 5.2 13.0 26.5 24.4 19.5 8.0 2.9 0.4 0.0
Longwood 5.5 0.1 5.3 23.1 24.8 20.0 17.3 6.8 2.0 0.6 0.0
High Point 7.5 0.1 1.3 5.9 9.1 10.4 15.0 30.1 16.3 9.1 2.7
Hampton 4.1 0.0 2.4 26.9 47.3 12.0 6.6 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 8.2 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.4 6.7 10.6 22.7 37.9 13.4 0.9
Charleston Southern 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 4.9 10.2 25.6 56.4
Presbyterian 9.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 4.0 10.9 20.2 39.6 22.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Winthrop 17 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.4 20.0 39.0 34.5
Gardner-Webb 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 2.3 9.5 23.8 36.0 28.1
Radford 13 - 7 0.3 2.8 9.5 19.8 25.6 22.6 13.4 5.0 0.9
UNC Asheville 11 - 9 0.5 3.4 10.4 20.9 26.6 22.7 12.1 3.1 0.3
Campbell 8 - 12 0.3 2.9 11.6 26.7 34.0 19.8 4.8
Longwood 8 - 12 0.5 3.3 10.8 22.5 29.2 24.1 9.7
High Point 6 - 14 0.1 1.3 4.6 11.1 18.8 23.0 20.2 13.1 6.0 1.5 0.2
Hampton 9 - 11 0.9 5.8 16.8 27.7 27.8 15.6 4.9 0.6 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 5 - 15 8.7 20.9 26.5 22.1 13.2 6.1 2.0 0.4 0.1
Charleston Southern 3 - 17 7.1 17.6 24.8 22.4 15.3 8.0 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Presbyterian 4 - 16 4.7 15.1 24.6 24.3 17.5 9.3 3.5 0.9 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Winthrop 97.8% 93.7 4.0 0.1
Gardner-Webb
Radford 6.1% 2.2 3.9 0.1
UNC Asheville 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1
Campbell
Longwood
High Point
Hampton 0.0% 0.0
South Carolina Upstate
Charleston Southern
Presbyterian


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Winthrop 61.8% 60.3% 1.5% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 6.1 24.6 23.4 4.7 0.2 38.2 3.8%
Gardner-Webb 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.5 5.3 89.6 0.0%
Radford 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.4 89.3 0.0%
UNC Asheville 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 7.5 91.6 0.0%
Campbell 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.0 96.9 0.0%
Longwood 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 3.0 97.0 0.0%
High Point 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Hampton 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Charleston Southern 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Presbyterian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Winthrop 61.8% 1.4% 60.8% 9.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 10.4% 2.9% 9.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 10.7% 5.8% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 8.4% 5.8% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 3.1% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
1st Round 87.8% 0.9 12.2 87.4 0.3
2nd Round 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0