Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Michigan 100.0%   1   13 - 1 8 - 1 17 - 4 12 - 4 +18.9      +9.7 10 +9.1 4 69.9 176 +22.7 3 +22.3 1
4 Iowa 99.7%   2   12 - 3 6 - 2 18 - 7 12 - 6 +18.6      +15.6 2 +3.0 97 74.7 59 +17.3 9 +17.2 3
8 Illinois 97.1%   3   10 - 5 6 - 3 15 - 9 11 - 7 +17.2      +10.1 8 +7.1 21 74.2 67 +14.1 29 +14.3 7
13 Wisconsin 96.3%   4   12 - 4 6 - 3 18 - 9 12 - 7 +15.8      +7.3 29 +8.5 8 61.5 335 +15.0 24 +15.0 4
17 Ohio St. 97.4%   3   12 - 4 6 - 4 17 - 8 11 - 8 +15.2      +10.8 5 +4.4 63 64.9 288 +16.3 14 +14.5 6
22 Indiana 75.6%   7   9 - 6 4 - 4 14 - 11 9 - 9 +13.6      +6.3 45 +7.3 17 67.5 237 +13.3 38 +11.7 9
27 Purdue 88.1%   6   11 - 6 6 - 4 16 - 10 11 - 8 +12.5      +5.5 57 +7.0 22 64.9 287 +14.6 25 +17.3 2
31 Minnesota 84.4%   7   11 - 5 4 - 5 16 - 10 9 - 10 +12.4      +5.9 49 +6.5 30 73.6 77 +15.6 19 +14.5 5
43 Maryland 58.2%   10   8 - 7 3 - 6 14 - 11 9 - 10 +11.2      +6.7 35 +4.5 61 65.9 267 +11.8 50 +12.5 8
44 Michigan St. 29.0%   8 - 4 2 - 4 12 - 10 6 - 10 +11.2      +5.5 56 +5.6 42 73.3 85 +10.3 60 +6.5 13
48 Rutgers 33.0%   7 - 6 3 - 6 12 - 13 8 - 13 +10.8      +5.0 65 +5.8 38 69.8 180 +11.3 53 +10.1 11
52 Penn St. 25.2%   5 - 6 2 - 5 10 - 12 7 - 10 +10.4      +7.3 28 +3.1 95 73.2 88 +10.2 61 +8.5 12
73 Northwestern 2.7%   5 - 8 3 - 7 8 - 14 6 - 13 +7.6      +4.8 69 +2.8 101 70.2 166 +9.3 67 +11.1 10
121 Nebraska 0.0%   3 - 8 0 - 5 5 - 15 2 - 12 +3.4      +1.7 128 +1.7 126 79.0 25 -1.2 178 -2.4 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan 2.5 37.8 24.0 15.0 10.0 6.4 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa 2.9 35.4 19.3 13.7 10.6 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois 3.8 17.8 17.1 15.6 14.2 11.5 9.7 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wisconsin 3.6 23.5 17.3 14.1 12.6 10.6 8.6 6.3 3.8 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 4.6 11.9 12.8 13.2 13.8 13.4 11.6 9.5 6.7 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Indiana 6.9 2.5 4.6 6.3 8.1 9.8 11.3 12.9 13.8 12.3 9.4 5.3 2.7 1.1 0.0
Purdue 4.2 12.6 15.9 16.4 14.5 12.3 10.2 7.6 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
Minnesota 6.7 1.9 4.6 6.9 8.8 10.7 12.4 13.6 13.3 11.6 8.8 4.7 2.1 0.8 0.0
Maryland 8.0 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.5 7.4 9.5 11.9 14.1 14.8 12.7 8.9 5.9 3.4 0.1
Michigan St. 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.4 5.9 9.3 13.2 19.5 21.0 21.7 1.7
Rutgers 8.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.4 6.1 8.1 10.6 12.5 13.7 14.2 10.9 7.9 5.7 0.2
Penn St. 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.5 7.1 10.9 15.3 20.0 19.0 16.8 1.1
Northwestern 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.2 8.9 14.0 20.5 25.0 19.8 0.9
Nebraska 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.4 7.7 88.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 12 - 8 0.2 1.8 6.9 16.2 25.8 26.6 17.0 5.5
Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.4 10.3 17.4 22.4 21.5 14.5 6.5 1.4
Illinois 11 - 9 0.0 0.4 2.7 8.4 17.4 23.9 23.2 15.8 6.8 1.4
Wisconsin 12 - 8 0.1 0.7 3.1 8.2 15.0 20.8 22.1 17.0 9.3 3.1 0.6
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.3 1.8 6.2 13.5 20.4 23.0 18.8 11.2 4.1 0.8
Indiana 9 - 11 0.2 1.3 4.7 10.4 17.2 21.4 20.0 14.3 7.5 2.6 0.5
Purdue 11 - 9 0.1 1.1 4.4 10.9 18.5 22.9 21.5 13.7 5.7 1.0
Minnesota 9 - 11 0.1 0.9 3.6 9.2 16.4 21.9 21.5 15.4 8.0 2.8 0.4
Maryland 9 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.7 15.0 20.6 20.6 16.2 9.7 3.7 0.7
Michigan St. 6 - 14 0.6 4.0 10.8 18.1 22.3 19.3 14.0 7.2 2.9 0.8 0.1
Rutgers 8 - 12 0.3 1.8 5.6 10.9 16.9 20.0 18.6 13.5 7.7 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Penn St. 7 - 13 0.4 2.7 8.0 15.8 21.3 21.8 16.2 9.2 3.6 0.9 0.1
Northwestern 6 - 14 2.2 10.1 20.0 24.9 21.5 13.5 5.7 1.7 0.3 0.0
Nebraska 2 - 18 14.8 27.3 26.6 18.0 8.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 37.8% 19.3 11.9 4.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Iowa 35.4% 19.4 10.3 4.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois 17.8% 7.4 5.9 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 23.5% 11.6 7.2 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 11.9% 4.4 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana 2.5% 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Purdue 12.6% 4.2 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 1.9% 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 0.9% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Nebraska


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 1   49.7 34.1 11.1 3.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 99.7% 22.5% 77.2% 2   26.3 32.1 21.4 10.1 4.8 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6%
Illinois 97.1% 15.4% 81.8% 3   7.7 16.5 22.1 17.1 11.5 7.6 4.7 2.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 96.6%
Wisconsin 96.3% 11.0% 85.4% 4   4.2 11.1 19.2 16.4 15.3 11.2 7.1 4.2 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 95.9%
Ohio St. 97.4% 8.8% 88.5% 3   4.3 12.0 21.0 18.6 15.0 9.7 5.4 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 97.1%
Indiana 75.6% 4.6% 71.1% 7   0.6 2.0 5.9 7.3 9.8 9.8 8.5 7.2 5.9 5.5 5.1 5.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 24.4 74.5%
Purdue 88.1% 4.2% 83.8% 6   0.3 1.3 5.8 8.2 13.6 15.9 13.2 10.5 6.7 5.2 3.7 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.9 87.5%
Minnesota 84.4% 3.1% 81.3% 7   0.2 1.4 4.5 7.3 11.7 12.7 12.7 10.2 7.2 5.4 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 15.6 83.9%
Maryland 58.2% 1.6% 56.6% 10   0.1 0.5 2.0 3.5 5.6 6.9 6.5 6.7 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 41.8 57.6%
Michigan St. 29.0% 1.3% 27.7% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.5 3.0 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.9 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 71.0 28.1%
Rutgers 33.0% 1.5% 31.5% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 67.0 32.0%
Penn St. 25.2% 1.0% 24.2% 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.4 5.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 74.8 24.5%
Northwestern 2.7% 0.2% 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 97.3 2.5%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.6% 69.8% 45.4% 25.5% 12.8% 6.0%
Iowa 99.7% 0.3% 99.6% 92.2% 65.8% 40.4% 22.4% 11.6% 5.3%
Illinois 97.1% 2.7% 96.3% 81.2% 52.2% 28.0% 14.1% 6.6% 2.8%
Wisconsin 96.3% 1.8% 95.5% 75.1% 43.6% 20.9% 9.2% 3.9% 1.4%
Ohio St. 97.4% 1.8% 96.6% 75.7% 42.3% 19.0% 8.2% 3.2% 1.1%
Indiana 75.6% 9.0% 72.0% 46.7% 21.9% 9.1% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4%
Purdue 88.1% 4.1% 86.0% 51.5% 20.7% 7.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Minnesota 84.4% 6.4% 81.4% 48.1% 19.3% 7.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Maryland 58.2% 9.4% 53.7% 28.7% 10.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Michigan St. 29.0% 6.1% 26.2% 14.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Rutgers 33.0% 7.7% 29.6% 15.5% 5.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Penn St. 25.2% 8.7% 21.4% 11.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Northwestern 2.7% 1.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.9 0.0 0.4 5.8 28.1 41.7 20.7 3.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 8.6 0.0 0.8 10.0 34.9 38.6 14.0 1.7 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.8 17.1 30.9 29.4 13.7 3.0 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.6 0.3 3.1 13.8 29.4 30.9 17.1 4.7 0.7 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 92.8% 1.9 7.2 29.2 38.4 20.2 4.6 0.4 0.0
Final Four 68.5% 0.9 31.5 48.1 18.3 2.1 0.1
Final Game 38.9% 0.4 61.1 35.7 3.2
Champion 17.9% 0.2 82.1 17.9