Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 UC Santa Barbara 41.0%   14   8 - 3 6 - 2 17 - 5 13 - 4 +5.8      +4.2 75 +1.5 129 65.4 280 +4.8 107 +3.2 2
109 UC Irvine 32.2%   6 - 4 5 - 0 15 - 7 12 - 3 +4.5      +0.7 147 +3.8 74 67.9 230 +4.2 116 +13.9 1
132 UC Riverside 17.9%   7 - 4 3 - 1 13 - 8 9 - 5 +2.4      -1.7 210 +4.1 67 63.4 314 +0.6 162 -1.9 4
191 Hawaii 5.2%   2 - 4 2 - 2 7 - 9 7 - 7 -2.3      +1.5 133 -3.8 275 69.5 190 -4.5 229 +0.6 3
228 UC Davis 2.9%   2 - 3 1 - 1 8 - 7 7 - 5 -4.4      -0.5 182 -4.0 280 80.1 14 -4.6 233 -2.9 5
254 UC San Diego 0.0%   1 - 4 1 - 4 5 - 12 5 - 10 -5.9      -8.1 330 +2.3 114 69.4 195 -9.2 290 -9.2 8
278 Cal St. Fullerton 0.8%   3 - 5 3 - 5 6 - 12 6 - 10 -7.3      -4.9 297 -2.4 235 71.1 138 -9.7 299 -9.7 9
295 Long Beach St. 0.5%   3 - 5 1 - 1 7 - 12 5 - 8 -8.4      -2.0 220 -6.4 326 80.4 12 -4.8 234 -4.3 6
300 Cal St. Northridge 0.4%   4 - 6 1 - 3 8 - 13 4 - 8 -8.8      -1.3 202 -7.5 335 74.9 53 -2.3 188 -7.0 7
332 Cal Poly 0.0%   1 - 10 0 - 4 4 - 17 3 - 11 -13.4      -8.0 328 -5.4 310 68.7 213 -14.3 328 -13.0 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
UC Santa Barbara 1.3 72.9 24.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 1.7 41.9 46.2 9.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 3.1 7.6 16.6 52.9 14.1 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 4.8 0.5 3.3 17.0 30.7 19.3 12.7 7.7 5.1 3.2 0.5
UC Davis 5.3 0.1 1.2 12.5 27.0 21.2 14.5 9.8 6.7 4.6 2.2
UC San Diego 6.6 0.0 0.5 5.2 10.9 16.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 15.1 4.4
Cal St. Fullerton 5.8 0.0 0.7 6.4 13.5 23.0 23.9 17.5 10.0 4.2 1.0
Long Beach St. 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.8 14.1 16.4 19.3 18.0 15.3 7.0
Cal St. Northridge 7.5 0.0 1.6 5.2 8.8 12.6 17.2 22.1 19.6 12.9
Cal Poly 8.8 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.7 8.5 14.0 20.3 47.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 8.5 19.7 29.7 27.0 12.1
UC Irvine 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 4.0 9.3 16.8 23.1 23.5 15.9 5.7
UC Riverside 9 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.9 8.6 14.9 20.4 21.2 17.0 9.5 2.8
Hawaii 7 - 9 0.4 2.3 6.4 11.9 17.6 19.9 18.0 12.9 7.2 2.8 0.6
UC Davis 7 - 9 0.3 1.4 4.2 8.9 14.6 19.1 19.7 16.2 10.3 4.3 0.9
UC San Diego 5 - 11 1.6 6.0 12.7 18.5 20.7 18.2 12.3 6.9 2.5 0.6 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 6 - 10 4.5 14.4 24.0 24.8 17.7 9.9 3.6 1.0 0.1
Long Beach St. 5 - 11 1.2 5.9 15.0 22.4 23.0 17.1 9.7 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 4 - 12 3.2 11.1 19.6 24.0 20.9 12.8 6.2 1.9 0.3
Cal Poly 3 - 13 6.2 16.4 23.8 23.5 16.6 8.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Santa Barbara 72.9% 52.6 18.7 1.5 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 41.9% 23.1 17.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 7.6% 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge
Cal Poly


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Santa Barbara 41.0% 40.5% 0.5% 14   0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.0 8.1 15.6 10.1 2.4 0.2 59.0 0.8%
UC Irvine 32.2% 31.9% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 4.7 11.5 9.0 3.6 0.7 67.8 0.5%
UC Riverside 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.7 6.1 5.2 1.6 82.1 0.0%
Hawaii 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.8 94.8 0.0%
UC Davis 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 97.1 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Santa Barbara 41.0% 0.4% 40.7% 7.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 32.2% 0.4% 32.0% 5.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 17.9% 0.5% 17.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 5.2% 1.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 2.9% 0.9% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
1st Round 98.2% 1.0 1.8 97.8 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 15.2% 0.2 84.8 15.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0