Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
140 Northeastern 29.0%   15   8 - 5 7 - 0 15 - 9 14 - 4 +1.6      -1.7 208 +3.3 88 67.2 244 +5.5 95 +13.1 1
162 Drexel 16.5%   7 - 5 2 - 3 13 - 9 8 - 7 -0.1      +0.9 146 -1.1 204 64.4 298 -2.9 199 -7.1 7
168 Hofstra 16.9%   8 - 6 4 - 3 14 - 11 10 - 8 -0.6      +0.6 151 -1.2 207 68.4 218 +1.0 159 -2.0 4
196 UNC Wilmington 7.8%   6 - 5 1 - 2 12 - 10 7 - 7 -2.7      -0.5 180 -2.2 230 71.0 143 -1.7 184 -7.2 8
202 College of Charleston 7.5%   4 - 8 3 - 3 8 - 12 7 - 7 -3.0      +0.2 166 -3.1 259 62.0 333 -5.3 244 -2.0 3
212 James Madison 6.1%   3 - 5 1 - 1 8 - 10 6 - 6 -3.5      -0.5 181 -3.0 255 77.8 32 -5.3 245 +1.6 2
226 Towson 5.5%   3 - 6 2 - 2 8 - 13 7 - 9 -4.4      -0.6 184 -3.8 276 64.8 289 -5.2 240 -4.0 6
227 Delaware 4.9%   3 - 7 2 - 4 8 - 13 7 - 10 -4.4      -2.9 247 -1.5 212 67.4 242 -8.2 281 -7.5 9
243 Elon 3.8%   2 - 3 0 - 2 6 - 9 4 - 8 -5.2      -2.4 236 -2.8 247 65.2 284 -5.2 241 -10.6 10
271 William & Mary 2.0%   4 - 7 2 - 4 8 - 13 6 - 10 -6.7      -2.9 246 -3.8 277 67.9 227 -3.9 221 -3.9 5






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northeastern 1.1 95.2 4.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 4.5 1.0 15.3 23.4 17.7 14.0 10.8 8.0 5.5 3.2 1.0
Hofstra 2.5 8.4 62.6 14.1 6.9 3.9 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
UNC Wilmington 5.6 0.5 6.9 14.1 14.8 14.2 13.3 12.5 10.7 7.9 5.1
College of Charleston 4.9 0.1 8.8 19.1 19.8 16.9 13.9 10.4 6.6 3.4 1.0
James Madison 6.7 0.1 3.3 7.8 9.5 10.9 12.2 13.3 15.0 16.8 11.2
Towson 5.2 1.0 10.6 18.9 14.7 12.9 11.8 10.8 9.6 7.0 2.8
Delaware 5.7 0.4 5.5 15.1 13.7 13.6 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.1 5.4
Elon 8.0 0.0 1.0 3.1 5.1 6.3 7.9 9.8 13.2 18.8 34.8
William & Mary 6.9 0.1 1.6 6.3 8.7 11.0 13.1 14.2 15.9 16.0 13.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northeastern 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.3 9.0 14.8 20.1 21.5 17.0 8.9 2.4
Drexel 8 - 10 0.1 0.9 3.0 7.7 13.6 19.6 20.9 17.5 11.0 4.7 1.1
Hofstra 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.1 10.0 14.9 19.4 19.6 15.0 9.1 3.7 0.8
UNC Wilmington 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.3 13.9 18.7 20.0 16.5 10.8 5.1 1.6 0.2
College of Charleston 7 - 11 0.5 3.1 9.0 17.5 24.5 23.0 15.0 6.2 1.2
James Madison 6 - 12 0.8 3.7 8.6 14.5 18.9 19.3 16.1 10.6 5.3 1.8 0.3
Towson 7 - 11 0.4 2.3 6.5 12.2 16.9 18.7 17.3 12.5 7.5 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
Delaware 7 - 11 0.7 3.5 8.7 15.3 19.7 19.3 15.9 9.8 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.1
Elon 4 - 14 1.5 5.6 11.3 16.3 18.7 16.9 13.8 9.2 4.7 1.8 0.3
William & Mary 6 - 12 2.5 8.9 16.1 21.1 20.4 15.6 9.0 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northeastern 95.2% 89.3 5.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Drexel 1.0% 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 8.4% 3.7 4.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
James Madison 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Towson 1.0% 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Delaware 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elon 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northeastern 29.0% 28.9% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 5.3 11.1 9.1 2.3 71.1 0.0%
Drexel 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.3 9.0 83.6 0.0%
Hofstra 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 6.8 4.0 83.1 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.0 92.2 0.0%
College of Charleston 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.9 92.5 0.0%
James Madison 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 2.4 93.9 0.0%
Towson 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.3 94.5 0.0%
Delaware 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.5 95.1 0.0%
Elon 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 96.2 0.0%
William & Mary 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 98.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northeastern 29.0% 0.5% 28.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 16.5% 4.8% 14.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 16.9% 1.4% 16.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 7.8% 1.9% 7.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 7.5% 4.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 6.1% 1.3% 5.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 5.5% 3.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 4.9% 3.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 3.8% 1.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 90.1% 0.9 9.9 90.1
2nd Round 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0