Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
79 Marshall 25.9%   9 - 4 3 - 3 17 - 6 11 - 5 +7.0      +3.4 90 +3.6 82 79.0 24 +7.1 79 +4.6 4
82 Western Kentucky 36.6%   12   12 - 4 5 - 2 20 - 7 13 - 5 +6.9      +4.5 74 +2.4 111 68.8 207 +12.0 48 +7.9 1
91 North Texas 14.7%   6 - 5 3 - 1 12 - 9 9 - 5 +5.9      +1.7 129 +4.2 65 62.2 331 +2.3 140 +4.4 5
98 UAB 17.5%   11 - 2 5 - 1 18 - 5 12 - 4 +5.4      +2.0 118 +3.5 84 69.3 197 +5.0 101 +6.2 3
105 Louisiana Tech 14.1%   12 - 5 5 - 3 19 - 8 12 - 6 +4.7      +0.4 160 +4.3 64 71.1 140 +5.0 102 +6.2 2
159 Old Dominion 2.8%   7 - 4 4 - 2 11 - 10 8 - 8 +0.2      -1.6 205 +1.8 122 66.2 262 +3.4 124 +2.2 7
161 UTEP 2.3%   4 - 7 3 - 5 9 - 12 8 - 10 -0.1      +0.7 148 -0.7 190 67.1 247 -0.1 167 -2.4 11
165 Charlotte 2.0%   7 - 6 3 - 3 13 - 10 9 - 7 -0.4      -2.2 228 +1.8 123 60.3 344 +0.9 160 +2.7 6
178 Florida Atlantic 1.2%   4 - 7 3 - 3 8 - 12 7 - 8 -1.1      0.0 171 -1.1 206 68.1 222 -4.6 231 -1.4 9
192 Rice 0.6%   8 - 6 4 - 4 11 - 13 7 - 11 -2.4      -0.1 173 -2.3 231 73.1 90 -1.4 181 +0.6 8
199 Texas San Antonio 0.5%   4 - 8 3 - 5 7 - 12 6 - 9 -2.8      +2.1 112 -4.9 302 77.9 31 -3.5 210 -2.1 10
221 Florida International 0.2%   5 - 8 2 - 6 7 - 14 4 - 12 -4.0      -0.1 174 -3.9 279 75.1 51 -5.5 248 -7.1 13
223 Southern Miss 0.3%   5 - 8 3 - 5 8 - 15 6 - 12 -4.2      -4.3 280 +0.1 167 64.3 300 -6.3 258 -4.7 12
272 Middle Tennessee 0.0%   2 - 8 1 - 4 4 - 17 3 - 13 -6.8      -8.2 331 +1.4 135 74.4 64 -10.0 303 -10.6 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Marshall 3.9 5.3 16.1 27.0 22.2 12.5 7.7 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 1.5 67.2 20.8 6.8 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Texas 5.5 2.9 6.6 11.9 14.5 17.6 16.7 11.5 7.3 5.2 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
UAB 2.4 31.0 30.7 18.5 10.9 4.7 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 2.7 22.9 28.5 21.8 14.5 6.7 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
Old Dominion 6.7 1.1 2.4 5.2 8.5 12.9 15.7 17.3 14.9 11.2 6.3 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
UTEP 6.9 0.5 2.0 5.0 8.9 14.9 15.9 15.9 12.4 9.3 6.7 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.2
Charlotte 6.1 0.7 3.4 8.4 13.5 19.3 16.4 12.5 9.6 7.0 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.2
Florida Atlantic 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.1 7.4 10.8 13.0 14.7 15.8 13.4 11.5 5.5 1.0
Rice 8.5 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.2 8.9 12.4 15.8 17.6 16.1 11.6 5.7 1.7 0.1
Texas San Antonio 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.9 5.3 8.2 11.4 15.6 20.1 21.1 11.2 2.2
Florida International 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 5.0 8.7 14.7 22.1 32.0 12.3
Southern Miss 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.8 9.2 11.8 13.3 14.5 15.4 12.1 8.3 2.0
Middle Tennessee 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.9 10.0 20.9 58.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.3 13.0 21.9 25.8 21.2 8.9
Western Kentucky 13 - 5 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.2 8.4 16.8 24.3 25.1 16.0 5.0
North Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.7 10.3 16.6 21.5 20.8 15.0 7.1 1.8
UAB 12 - 6 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.5 10.1 17.9 24.3 22.9 14.2 4.4
Louisiana Tech 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.2 13.4 21.8 25.0 19.3 9.4 2.2
Old Dominion 8 - 10 0.5 3.3 10.6 19.6 24.1 20.5 13.0 5.9 2.0 0.4 0.1
UTEP 8 - 10 0.2 1.4 4.5 10.5 17.9 21.7 20.5 14.2 6.9 2.0 0.3
Charlotte 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.8 12.8 18.8 21.9 18.7 12.0 4.7 1.0
Florida Atlantic 7 - 11 2.1 8.7 16.7 23.2 22.1 15.6 7.9 2.9 0.7 0.1
Rice 7 - 11 3.3 12.5 24.2 25.8 19.1 9.8 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 5.7 17.7 25.8 24.6 16.4 7.2 2.2 0.4
Florida International 4 - 14 5.7 18.7 29.0 25.1 14.2 5.5 1.5 0.2 0.0
Southern Miss 6 - 12 3.2 10.6 19.1 22.7 20.0 13.3 7.0 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 3 - 15 13.2 25.2 25.9 18.9 10.4 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marshall 5.3% 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 67.2% 46.1 16.7 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
North Texas 2.9% 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
UAB 31.0% 15.8 11.4 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 22.9% 10.3 8.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 1.1% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
UTEP 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 0.7% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio
Florida International
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marshall 25.9% 21.8% 4.1% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.5 4.3 11.7 4.9 0.4 0.0 74.1 5.3%
Western Kentucky 36.6% 23.6% 13.0% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.9 4.1 9.1 15.7 3.7 0.3 0.0 63.4 17.1%
North Texas 14.7% 14.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 3.8 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.2 85.3 0.4%
UAB 17.5% 16.5% 1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.3 4.9 6.7 2.8 0.4 82.5 1.2%
Louisiana Tech 14.1% 13.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.0 6.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 85.9 0.3%
Old Dominion 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 97.2 0.0%
UTEP 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 97.7 0.0%
Charlotte 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 98.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 98.8 0.0%
Rice 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 99.4 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Florida International 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Marshall 25.9% 2.9% 24.3% 6.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 36.6% 7.2% 32.4% 8.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 14.7% 0.4% 14.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 17.5% 0.7% 17.1% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 14.1% 0.3% 13.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.8% 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 81.7 17.7 0.6
1st Round 99.6% 1.1 0.4 87.7 11.7 0.2
2nd Round 24.3% 0.3 75.7 23.6 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2 0.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0