Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Siena 28.8%   14   7 - 1 7 - 1 16 - 4 15 - 3 +1.0      +1.1 143 -0.1 173 66.1 265 +5.6 94 +5.6 1
158 Monmouth 25.5%   7 - 4 7 - 3 17 - 8 16 - 6 +0.3      +0.6 154 -0.3 179 84.2 6 -2.1 186 -0.4 2
173 St. Peter's 17.3%   7 - 6 4 - 4 16 - 9 12 - 6 -0.8      -5.4 307 +4.7 58 67.6 233 +1.1 157 -0.6 4
188 Iona 11.2%   5 - 3 3 - 1 14 - 10 9 - 4 -2.1      -1.1 194 -1.0 200 69.1 199 -1.2 176 -0.4 3
238 Canisius 4.8%   3 - 3 3 - 3 11 - 11 8 - 9 -5.0      -2.2 229 -2.8 251 72.1 117 -3.6 211 -3.6 5
248 Niagara 4.4%   6 - 8 5 - 7 10 - 14 9 - 12 -5.5      -1.8 216 -3.7 274 64.4 297 -6.4 261 -8.0 7
270 Quinnipiac 2.3%   4 - 6 2 - 4 10 - 14 6 - 11 -6.7      -8.1 329 +1.4 134 72.2 111 -8.2 282 -10.6 11
274 Marist 3.2%   8 - 6 6 - 6 13 - 13 11 - 13 -7.1      -6.2 317 -0.8 191 64.5 295 -4.5 227 -5.2 6
289 Rider 1.0%   4 - 11 4 - 8 7 - 16 6 - 12 -8.0      -2.0 221 -6.0 319 71.1 139 -10.1 304 -9.2 9
294 Manhattan 1.2%   5 - 4 4 - 4 8 - 11 6 - 10 -8.3      -9.3 338 +1.0 144 63.8 311 -7.8 277 -8.4 8
313 Fairfield 0.3%   3 - 12 3 - 7 6 - 21 5 - 13 -10.3      -7.3 324 -3.0 253 62.4 329 -12.7 319 -9.6 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Siena 1.7 41.3 49.3 6.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 1.3 71.9 23.1 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 3.2 2.3 15.8 56.4 18.7 4.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iona 5.7 0.0 0.4 5.3 19.3 26.0 21.9 12.8 7.2 4.2 2.3 0.7
Canisius 6.8 0.1 0.6 2.6 8.8 17.0 18.8 18.0 12.0 9.2 8.7 4.2
Niagara 5.3 0.4 1.7 7.4 21.2 26.3 21.4 13.2 5.5 2.3 0.7 0.1
Quinnipiac 8.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 6.6 11.0 14.3 15.4 15.4 14.3 18.7
Marist 4.1 3.0 8.4 23.1 32.0 18.1 9.8 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
Rider 8.4 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.6 16.7 21.2 24.3 21.3 5.9
Manhattan 8.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.5 10.9 19.2 25.2 19.7 13.2 5.8
Fairfield 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 8.6 14.4 17.2 22.1 33.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Siena 15 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.4 13.0 20.6 24.6 21.8 10.0
Monmouth 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.7 8.0 13.7 19.7 21.6 18.0 10.2 3.2
St. Peter's 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.5 10.1 18.7 26.7 25.2 12.9
Iona 9 - 11 0.2 0.9 3.3 7.8 14.4 20.3 22.0 17.9 10.3 3.0
Canisius 8 - 12 1.1 4.6 9.9 16.0 19.7 18.3 14.6 8.9 4.5 1.8 0.4 0.1
Niagara 9 - 11 1.3 6.2 13.8 20.5 21.9 18.3 11.3 5.1 1.3 0.3
Quinnipiac 6 - 14 1.9 6.6 13.2 18.7 20.0 17.1 11.9 6.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
Marist 11 - 9 0.8 3.8 9.5 16.0 20.4 19.1 15.0 9.1 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rider 6 - 14 11.0 26.4 30.9 20.8 8.7 1.9 0.2
Manhattan 6 - 14 5.8 20.6 31.6 24.3 12.2 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Fairfield 5 - 15 10.6 25.3 29.1 20.7 10.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Siena 41.3% 25.1 15.1 1.0 0.1
Monmouth 71.9% 55.4 15.4 1.0 0.1
St. Peter's 2.3% 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1
Iona 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 0.0% 0.0
Marist 3.0% 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
Rider
Manhattan
Fairfield


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Siena 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 7.5 11.0 6.6 1.3 71.2 0.0%
Monmouth 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 7.3 10.2 5.3 74.5 0.0%
St. Peter's 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.5 7.3 3.9 82.7 0.0%
Iona 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.1 2.0 88.8 0.0%
Canisius 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.1 95.3 0.0%
Niagara 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.9 95.6 0.0%
Quinnipiac 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 97.7 0.0%
Marist 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.9 96.8 0.0%
Rider 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Manhattan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Fairfield 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Siena 28.8% 0.3% 28.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 25.5% 1.7% 24.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 17.3% 1.1% 16.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 11.2% 0.7% 10.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 4.8% 1.1% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 4.4% 3.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 2.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 92.9% 0.9 7.1 92.9 0.0
2nd Round 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0