Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
28 Loyola Chicago 67.6%   12   9 - 3 6 - 1 17 - 6 14 - 4 +12.5      +5.4 59 +7.1 20 63.3 316 +8.6 71 +9.8 2
49 Drake 19.7%   11 - 0 4 - 0 25 - 4 18 - 4 +10.7      +7.0 32 +3.8 76 68.0 223 +15.7 17 +17.8 1
90 Missouri St. 11.8%   7 - 1 5 - 1 14 - 4 12 - 4 +5.9      +5.1 64 +0.9 149 70.7 154 +10.3 59 +9.8 3
116 Bradley 5.3%   7 - 5 3 - 2 13 - 12 9 - 9 +3.8      +1.2 140 +2.6 107 66.1 264 +3.1 130 +1.0 5
128 Indiana St. 3.5%   5 - 7 3 - 5 12 - 12 10 - 10 +2.6      +0.4 158 +2.2 115 69.6 184 +3.8 121 +3.5 4
144 Northern Iowa 2.0%   2 - 10 2 - 6 10 - 17 10 - 13 +1.2      +2.1 113 -0.9 194 72.8 99 -4.5 226 -3.3 8
177 Southern Illinois 1.1%   6 - 3 1 - 3 13 - 14 8 - 14 -1.0      -0.4 179 -0.5 184 66.5 253 +4.6 113 -8.3 10
209 Valparaiso 0.2%   2 - 9 1 - 3 6 - 17 5 - 11 -3.3      -3.3 259 0.0 170 70.9 148 -7.2 272 -2.7 7
218 Illinois St. 0.1%   4 - 9 2 - 6 7 - 16 5 - 13 -4.0      -2.3 232 -1.7 219 71.5 132 -5.0 235 -5.6 9
239 Evansville 0.2%   6 - 8 4 - 4 10 - 19 8 - 15 -5.0      -1.7 212 -3.3 263 58.5 347 -3.8 219 0.0 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 2.1 11.8 73.5 11.4 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Drake 0.6 43.1 5.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 3.6 0.5 17.4 40.0 23.0 10.9 5.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Bradley 5.2 0.2 4.1 13.6 17.2 21.5 20.5 13.1 6.7 2.5 0.7
Indiana St. 5.0 0.1 2.5 16.9 23.0 21.9 17.1 10.8 5.7 1.6 0.3
Northern Iowa 5.0 0.6 4.5 18.5 21.4 19.0 14.8 10.3 7.0 3.0 1.1
Southern Illinois 6.4 0.2 1.9 8.4 10.6 13.0 15.1 17.3 17.8 10.9 4.9
Valparaiso 8.8 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.4 8.5 15.7 29.0 40.0
Illinois St. 8.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.5 8.9 20.2 36.2 29.6
Evansville 6.6 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.0 12.4 19.4 25.1 21.1 8.8 2.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 7.5 16.3 24.4 25.8 17.3 5.7
Drake 8 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.2 9.1 13.7 17.5
Missouri St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.7 13.9 19.8 22.3 18.3 10.3 2.9
Bradley 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.1 10.8 15.9 18.3 17.1 13.6 8.8 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.0
Indiana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.1 8.0 13.9 18.3 19.2 16.6 10.9 5.4 1.6 0.2
Northern Iowa 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.3 9.0 12.5 15.6 16.3 14.8 11.1 6.8 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1
Southern Illinois 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.4 9.1 12.8 15.1 15.2 13.4 10.5 7.2 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 5 - 13 2.9 9.5 16.5 20.5 19.4 14.8 9.3 4.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 5 - 13 4.2 14.0 22.5 24.4 18.5 10.2 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Evansville 8 - 10 2.5 9.0 16.9 21.1 19.9 15.0 8.8 4.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 11.8% 6.4 5.1 0.3 0.0
Drake 43.1% 37.5 5.3 0.3 0.0
Missouri St. 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bradley 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso
Illinois St.
Evansville 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 67.6% 43.9% 23.7% 12   0.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.8 4.1 4.5 6.4 8.2 12.0 13.1 9.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 32.4 42.2%
Drake 62.1% 35.0% 27.2% 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.3 4.1 5.9 4.5 5.0 6.0 7.5 9.9 10.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 37.9 41.8%
Missouri St. 11.8% 9.6% 2.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.7 3.9 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 88.2 2.5%
Bradley 5.3% 4.6% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 94.7 0.7%
Indiana St. 3.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 96.5 0.2%
Northern Iowa 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 98.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 98.9 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Loyola Chicago 67.6% 5.8% 65.1% 34.8% 13.4% 5.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
Drake 62.1% 7.0% 58.6% 28.8% 10.7% 3.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Missouri St. 11.8% 1.5% 11.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 5.3% 0.5% 5.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 3.5% 0.3% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 2.0% 1.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 49.1 47.8 3.1 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.5 0.2 55.4 42.3 2.1 0.0
2nd Round 59.0% 0.7 41.0 50.0 8.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 24.2% 0.3 75.8 23.1 1.1 0.0
Elite Eight 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.1 0.1
Final Four 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Final Game 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3