Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
35 San Diego St. 70.0%   11   9 - 4 4 - 3 19 - 5 14 - 4 +11.9      +4.6 72 +7.3 19 62.9 322 +10.9 56 +7.0 4
36 Boise St. 84.8%   8   12 - 1 9 - 0 21 - 5 18 - 4 +11.8      +6.5 41 +5.3 49 70.8 151 +19.3 7 +10.8 3
45 Utah St. 60.9%   12   11 - 4 9 - 1 19 - 7 17 - 4 +11.2      +3.0 96 +8.2 9 72.2 110 +7.6 74 +13.6 2
70 Colorado St. 38.8%   10 - 3 8 - 2 18 - 6 15 - 5 +8.1      +4.9 67 +3.2 93 71.8 123 +13.2 40 +15.4 1
114 Nevada 2.9%   9 - 6 5 - 4 16 - 12 12 - 10 +4.0      +1.7 127 +2.3 112 74.5 62 +2.7 133 -1.0 7
117 UNLV 2.5%   3 - 6 2 - 2 11 - 11 10 - 7 +3.7      +2.9 99 +0.8 150 67.4 240 -1.1 174 +1.0 5
180 Wyoming 0.3%   9 - 5 3 - 4 13 - 12 7 - 11 -1.2      +1.9 125 -3.1 257 71.0 146 +1.3 154 -0.2 6
183 Fresno St. 0.3%   3 - 6 3 - 6 7 - 16 7 - 16 -1.7      -1.1 195 -0.6 187 63.1 319 -4.5 228 -4.5 9
259 New Mexico 0.0%   3 - 9 1 - 9 6 - 17 4 - 17 -6.0      -4.0 274 -2.1 225 63.8 312 -5.6 249 -12.5 11
286 Air Force 0.0%   4 - 9 2 - 7 7 - 17 5 - 15 -7.7      -2.8 242 -4.9 303 59.8 345 -3.1 202 -1.7 8
321 San Jose St. 0.0%   1 - 11 1 - 9 3 - 19 3 - 17 -10.9      -3.4 261 -7.4 334 79.3 21 -12.9 321 -9.6 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 3.8 0.1 5.1 25.2 54.7 13.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 1.4 61.6 20.1 9.4 2.4 0.8 0.1
Utah St. 1.8 38.5 43.4 14.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 2.6 11.9 34.7 40.2 9.6 3.5 0.1 0.0
Nevada 4.6 1.0 4.8 10.4 20.1 46.1 14.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
UNLV 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.2 21.1 54.9 13.2 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Wyoming 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 12.5 41.5 34.4 8.4 1.4 0.3
Fresno St. 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.3 19.1 35.3 24.8 12.3 2.7 0.3
New Mexico 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.6 22.0 43.9 20.5
Air Force 8.7 0.0 0.1 3.1 12.6 20.2 42.2 15.1 6.7
San Jose St. 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 12.2 36.2 48.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 12.4 26.3 34.3 21.5
Boise St. 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.7 8.1 14.0 18.4 20.4 17.2 10.8
Utah St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.8 14.6 22.0 24.4 18.2 8.7 2.1
Colorado St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 8.1 17.3 25.6 25.6 15.5 4.9
Nevada 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.9 11.7 17.3 20.9 18.8 13.0 6.5 2.5 0.6 0.1
UNLV 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.7 14.0 20.1 22.8 17.7 10.0 3.9 0.9 0.1
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.3 2.3 9.8 21.1 26.9 22.3 12.0 4.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Fresno St. 7 - 13 0.7 3.7 10.2 18.2 22.1 19.2 13.4 7.3 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 4 - 16 6.3 17.4 25.0 23.8 15.7 7.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Air Force 5 - 15 2.8 10.6 20.0 24.6 21.4 13.0 5.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 17 14.3 29.2 29.9 17.4 6.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 61.6% 48.2 11.4 1.9 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 38.5% 25.0 11.4 1.9 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 11.9% 4.4 5.6 1.8 0.1 0.0
Nevada 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
UNLV 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Wyoming
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0
New Mexico
Air Force
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 70.0% 24.1% 45.9% 11   0.1 0.7 2.0 2.8 2.3 2.8 4.6 6.8 9.5 14.0 14.8 8.7 0.7 0.0 30.0 60.5%
Boise St. 90.4% 30.6% 59.8% 8   0.6 1.8 3.9 7.3 9.6 11.0 10.1 10.1 12.7 10.7 8.3 4.1 0.2 0.0 9.6 86.1%
Utah St. 60.9% 26.5% 34.3% 12   0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.5 7.9 9.8 12.3 11.7 6.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 39.1 46.7%
Colorado St. 38.8% 12.9% 25.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.8 5.7 8.1 9.7 8.0 0.9 0.0 61.2 29.7%
Nevada 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 97.1 0.1%
UNLV 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 97.5 0.0%
Wyoming 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
San Diego St. 70.0% 10.2% 65.3% 33.1% 11.6% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Boise St. 90.4% 4.8% 87.8% 48.4% 17.6% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Utah St. 60.9% 6.1% 57.9% 27.5% 8.7% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado St. 38.8% 8.2% 34.0% 12.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 2.9% 0.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.7 5.7 35.7 45.7 12.7 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 2.5 8.4 41.3 41.3 8.8 0.1
2nd Round 81.9% 1.2 18.1 47.3 28.9 5.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 36.5% 0.4 63.5 32.2 4.2 0.1
Elite Eight 14.1% 0.1 85.9 13.5 0.6 0.0
Final Four 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6 0.1
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5