Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 Belmont 50.4%   14   15 - 1 10 - 0 24 - 3 19 - 2 +6.3      +5.7 53 +0.6 157 76.2 40 +8.7 70 +8.7 1
152 Eastern Kentucky 15.1%   11 - 2 7 - 1 17 - 6 13 - 5 +0.7      -1.4 203 +2.1 118 85.2 3 +6.1 86 +5.9 3
170 Murray St. 6.8%   4 - 7 3 - 5 11 - 11 10 - 9 -0.7      -0.3 175 -0.4 180 68.9 205 -7.6 276 -7.9 7
184 Jacksonville St. 7.4%   8 - 5 6 - 3 14 - 9 12 - 7 -1.8      -0.1 172 -1.7 220 66.7 249 +1.8 144 +1.5 5
186 Morehead St. 9.6%   9 - 6 8 - 2 15 - 10 14 - 6 -1.9      -4.5 287 +2.7 104 65.7 270 +1.8 145 +3.0 4
207 Austin Peay 3.4%   6 - 5 4 - 3 12 - 10 10 - 8 -3.2      +1.2 141 -4.4 289 67.9 226 -2.3 189 -2.3 6
247 Eastern Illinois 0.6%   5 - 10 2 - 6 10 - 15 7 - 11 -5.5      -2.2 230 -3.2 261 71.0 145 -7.4 274 -9.9 8
292 Tennessee St. 0.1%   2 - 10 2 - 8 5 - 18 5 - 16 -8.2      -9.4 339 +1.2 140 72.2 109 -16.7 335 -15.9 12
303 Tennessee Tech 0.1%   2 - 15 2 - 8 6 - 21 6 - 14 -9.0      -4.5 288 -4.5 293 69.9 172 -12.3 317 -10.7 9
304 Southeast Missouri St. 0.2%   4 - 9 2 - 5 9 - 17 7 - 13 -9.1      -5.0 299 -4.1 282 68.3 220 -8.7 285 -11.9 11
318 SIU Edwardsville 0.1%   3 - 5 2 - 1 7 - 11 6 - 7 -10.6      -6.3 319 -4.3 288 73.0 94 -2.4 191 +6.4 2
342 Tennessee Martin 0.0%   2 - 9 1 - 7 4 - 18 3 - 16 -15.7      -4.8 295 -10.8 346 70.0 169 -11.1 314 -11.2 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 0.9 88.5 1.9 0.5 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 2.8 2.7 44.0 31.1 15.0 5.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 5.2 0.0 3.1 8.0 17.9 30.6 27.5 8.5 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 3.6 0.4 22.0 25.5 30.1 13.9 6.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 2.7 3.6 49.8 27.9 12.9 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 5.0 0.0 4.6 9.5 19.0 30.7 24.4 8.0 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 7.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.7 11.9 29.9 24.2 15.1 8.5 3.7 1.1
Tennessee St. 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.6 8.9 15.3 19.7 22.4 23.2 6.7
Tennessee Tech 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 14.8 20.7 21.6 18.7 13.5 4.5
Southeast Missouri St. 7.8 0.3 1.0 2.5 7.1 12.2 24.3 19.1 14.6 10.4 6.3 2.2
SIU Edwardsville 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 12.2 18.3 20.6 20.2 16.5 7.8
Tennessee Martin 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 6.4 11.6 21.5 55.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 5.8 12.5 21.2 26.6 22.1
Eastern Kentucky 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 7.8 15.9 22.8 23.9 17.2 7.3 1.4
Murray St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.8 9.3 17.1 23.2 22.4 15.1 6.3 1.4
Jacksonville St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 9.4 17.1 22.9 22.7 15.6 6.3 1.0
Morehead St. 14 - 6 0.1 0.4 2.2 7.0 14.5 21.4 23.3 18.3 9.6 2.8 0.4
Austin Peay 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.5 8.8 15.8 22.2 21.4 16.0 8.1 2.7 0.4
Eastern Illinois 7 - 13 0.1 0.9 3.8 10.7 19.3 24.4 21.3 12.9 5.3 1.3 0.1
Tennessee St. 5 - 15 2.9 10.9 19.5 23.4 19.8 13.3 6.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6 - 14 1.0 5.5 13.9 21.1 23.1 18.5 10.9 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 7 - 13 0.5 2.7 6.7 12.0 17.5 19.1 16.8 12.1 7.3 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 6 - 14 1.6 7.5 16.5 23.0 22.6 16.3 8.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 3 - 17 10.1 22.5 26.7 20.7 12.1 5.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 88.5% 84.8 3.3 0.3 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 2.7% 0.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0
Jacksonville St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 3.6% 1.4 1.9 0.3 0.0
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee St.
Tennessee Tech
Southeast Missouri St.
SIU Edwardsville
Tennessee Martin


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 56.9% 56.7% 0.2% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.7 7.7 22.7 19.3 4.0 0.2 43.1 0.5%
Eastern Kentucky 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.3 7.0 3.8 0.5 84.9 0.0%
Murray St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.3 93.2 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.4 1.2 92.6 0.0%
Morehead St. 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.2 3.8 90.4 0.0%
Austin Peay 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 96.6 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 56.9% 0.2% 56.8% 10.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 15.1% 0.1% 15.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 6.8% 2.6% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 7.4% 0.3% 7.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 9.6% 1.5% 8.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 3.4% 0.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.7 97.2 0.1
2nd Round 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.4
Sweet Sixteen 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0