Patriot League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 Colgate 60.2%   13   5 - 1 5 - 1 12 - 2 12 - 2 +7.0      +6.6 37 +0.3 162 73.9 72 +1.3 153 +1.3 2
167 Navy 14.5%   10 - 1 7 - 0 15 - 5 12 - 4 -0.5      +0.6 153 -1.1 203 63.2 317 +13.2 41 +8.3 1
194 Army 7.8%   7 - 4 4 - 3 12 - 8 9 - 7 -2.4      -2.9 245 +0.5 161 71.4 134 +4.0 118 +0.8 3
197 Lafayette 8.0%   5 - 2 5 - 2 10 - 6 10 - 6 -2.7      +2.4 108 -5.2 307 66.6 252 -2.4 192 -2.4 4
237 American 3.2%   1 - 2 1 - 2 5 - 7 5 - 7 -4.9      -2.3 234 -2.6 242 69.5 192 -5.5 247 -5.5 5
251 Loyola Maryland 2.5%   0 - 3 0 - 3 4 - 8 4 - 8 -5.7      -0.8 190 -4.8 300 73.7 76 -16.3 333 -18.2 10
263 Bucknell 2.1%   2 - 4 2 - 4 6 - 8 6 - 8 -6.2      -5.2 305 -1.0 202 74.9 52 -8.5 283 -8.5 6
283 Boston University 1.1%   2 - 5 2 - 5 5 - 11 5 - 11 -7.6      -1.9 217 -5.8 315 65.3 283 -9.7 298 -9.7 9
308 Lehigh 0.5%   2 - 5 2 - 5 5 - 11 5 - 11 -9.5      -3.7 268 -5.8 316 69.0 202 -9.3 291 -9.3 7
323 Holy Cross 0.3%   2 - 5 2 - 5 5 - 11 5 - 11 -11.2      -4.5 289 -6.7 328 71.7 124 -9.3 292 -9.3 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.6 48.4 43.4 6.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Navy 1.6 60.8 21.4 12.6 4.8 0.3 0.0
Army 3.6 4.2 8.2 25.2 49.3 8.5 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 2.7 16.6 20.3 45.8 12.9 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
American 6.9 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.8 20.2 15.7 15.8 14.5 12.4 12.2
Loyola Maryland 7.5 0.4 3.8 16.5 14.1 14.5 14.4 14.3 22.1
Bucknell 6.2 0.1 3.1 10.2 28.8 18.9 15.2 11.8 7.5 4.4
Boston University 6.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.7 17.2 24.4 18.0 15.4 12.2 4.6
Lehigh 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 12.8 15.3 17.7 20.7 16.6 13.2
Holy Cross 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.0 11.6 17.5 15.5 18.2 20.9 11.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Colgate 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.4 14.3 34.1 45.8
Navy 12 - 4 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.9 15.9 21.2 21.9 16.6 8.5 2.2
Army 9 - 7 0.1 1.1 4.7 11.8 21.0 25.1 21.1 11.2 3.4 0.5
Lafayette 10 - 6 0.1 1.0 3.3 8.4 15.1 21.3 22.4 17.4 8.7 2.3
American 5 - 11 2.0 6.4 12.6 17.7 19.3 17.7 12.9 7.5 3.2 0.6
Loyola Maryland 4 - 12 1.2 4.6 10.0 15.4 19.1 18.8 15.9 9.7 4.2 1.1
Bucknell 6 - 10 1.5 6.3 14.0 20.7 22.2 18.5 11.3 4.5 1.0
Boston University 5 - 11 2.4 9.1 19.0 25.7 23.3 13.6 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
Lehigh 5 - 11 6.6 17.4 24.4 23.1 16.2 8.2 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 5 - 11 6.5 18.0 24.7 22.8 15.7 8.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 48.4% 24.7 20.5 3.1 0.2 0.0
Navy 60.8% 40.9 16.9 2.9 0.2 0.0
Army 4.2% 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Lafayette 16.6% 6.7 7.0 2.7 0.2 0.0
American 0.0% 0.0
Loyola Maryland
Bucknell
Boston University 0.0% 0.0
Lehigh 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 60.2% 60.1% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.2 7.0 18.4 19.8 8.5 1.4 0.1 39.8 0.3%
Navy 14.5% 14.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 6.3 4.4 1.2 0.1 85.5 0.1%
Army 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 92.2 0.0%
Lafayette 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.9 2.0 92.0 0.0%
American 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 96.8 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 97.5 0.0%
Bucknell 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 97.9 0.0%
Boston University 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 98.9 0.0%
Lehigh 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Colgate 60.2% 0.1% 60.1% 14.6% 4.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 14.5% 0.1% 14.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 8.0% 0.9% 7.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.5% 0.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 2.0 97.9 0.1
2nd Round 16.5% 0.2 83.5 16.5
Sweet Sixteen 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0