Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
240 Prairie View 29.0%   16   4 - 4 3 - 0 12 - 7 11 - 3 -5.1      -5.9 316 +0.8 152 69.8 182 -2.3 187 +2.7 2
249 Texas Southern 24.7%   2 - 7 1 - 2 11 - 10 10 - 5 -5.6      -2.2 231 -3.3 267 73.1 91 -8.1 279 -14.6 7
281 Southern 17.8%   3 - 5 3 - 1 11 - 8 11 - 4 -7.3      -5.6 311 -1.7 221 71.3 135 -9.8 300 -7.0 4
290 Jackson St. 12.1%   2 - 5 2 - 0 7 - 8 7 - 3 -8.0      -7.4 326 -0.6 186 69.9 174 -3.8 218 +5.1 1
312 Grambling St. 6.3%   4 - 8 3 - 3 8 - 11 7 - 6 -10.2      -7.8 327 -2.3 233 70.5 156 -10.6 309 -10.0 5
324 Alabama A&M 6.6%   4 - 0 2 - 0 10 - 6 8 - 6 -11.4      -8.7 333 -2.7 246 74.2 68 +6.3 84 +1.5 3
337 Alcorn St. 2.7%   3 - 6 3 - 1 8 - 12 8 - 7 -13.8      -6.3 318 -7.5 336 72.1 114 -11.2 315 -10.2 6
343 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.6%   3 - 11 2 - 3 7 - 19 6 - 11 -17.3      -9.6 340 -7.7 338 71.1 141 -12.8 320 -18.6 8
346 Alabama St. 0.2%   1 - 5 1 - 5 4 - 14 4 - 14 -19.8      -14.1 345 -5.6 314 66.5 255 -25.5 347 -25.5 9
348 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 13 0 - 5 1 - 20 1 - 12 -30.0      -14.6 346 -15.4 348 77.3 34 -26.6 348 -30.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Prairie View 1.7 57.7 23.7 12.1 4.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 2.5 26.8 29.7 24.4 10.6 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
Southern 2.3 34.7 30.2 20.0 8.1 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Jackson St. 5.3 0.4 3.3 9.9 19.1 22.2 20.4 14.9 7.9 1.8 0.0
Grambling St. 5.3 0.2 2.7 8.6 20.3 24.0 21.3 14.6 7.2 1.2
Alabama A&M 4.8 6.1 8.6 12.8 18.3 15.8 14.2 14.0 7.8 2.4 0.0
Alcorn St. 4.8 3.5 7.8 13.4 21.1 17.7 15.5 13.6 6.3 1.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 6.1 9.8 13.4 19.7 33.6 14.0 0.1
Alabama St. 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.2 9.0 23.5 58.8 1.2
Mississippi Valley 9.9 0.0 0.3 5.1 94.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Prairie View 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.0 7.5 15.2 23.1 25.4 18.4 6.2
Texas Southern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.8 8.9 16.8 23.2 23.7 16.2 5.8
Southern 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.8 13.7 20.6 23.7 19.2 9.5 2.3
Jackson St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 3.0 9.0 17.9 25.3 24.1 15.3 4.6
Grambling St. 7 - 11 0.2 1.9 7.8 18.3 28.0 26.3 14.2 3.4
Alabama A&M 8 - 10 0.0 1.0 3.7 8.8 14.7 18.5 18.9 15.2 10.2 5.5 2.6 0.7 0.1
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.2 2.0 7.1 15.4 20.6 21.9 16.6 9.8 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6 - 12 1.5 8.4 18.1 23.4 21.6 14.7 7.7 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 4 - 14 2.5 16.3 27.1 24.8 16.1 8.3 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 1 - 17 59.2 31.5 8.0 1.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Prairie View 57.7% 38.6 15.3 3.3 0.4 0.0
Texas Southern 26.8% 12.9 10.6 3.0 0.4 0.0
Southern 34.7% 19.3 12.0 3.1 0.4 0.0
Jackson St. 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 6.1% 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Alcorn St. 3.5% 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Prairie View 29.0% 29.0% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.0 3.4 24.5 71.0 0.0%
Texas Southern 24.7% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.4 21.7 75.3 0.0%
Southern 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 16.5 82.2 0.0%
Jackson St. 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 11.1 87.9 0.0%
Grambling St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 6.3 93.7 0.0%
Alabama A&M 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 5.1 93.4 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Alabama St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Prairie View 29.0% 20.1% 18.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 24.7% 18.7% 14.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 17.8% 14.5% 9.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 12.1% 9.9% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 6.3% 6.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 6.6% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 56.4% 0.6 43.7 56.4
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0