Summit League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
103 South Dakota St. 45.2%   14   9 - 3 6 - 1 16 - 6 13 - 4 +4.9      +6.5 39 -1.6 218 72.6 103 +9.0 69 +3.3 1
154 North Dakota St. 18.5%   9 - 7 9 - 2 13 - 11 13 - 6 +0.5      0.0 170 +0.5 160 62.5 328 -0.1 168 +2.5 3
163 Oral Roberts 15.3%   6 - 6 6 - 1 11 - 10 11 - 5 -0.2      +4.0 79 -4.3 287 73.3 86 +0.3 165 +2.1 4
174 South Dakota 13.9%   7 - 6 7 - 2 13 - 10 13 - 6 -0.8      +0.6 150 -1.4 210 69.9 175 +0.5 164 +2.8 2
229 UMKC 3.4%   1 - 9 1 - 4 5 - 14 5 - 9 -4.5      -5.2 304 +0.7 153 60.4 343 -14.0 327 -10.3 7
231 Purdue Fort Wayne 0.0%   6 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 11 0 - 0 -4.7      -0.8 188 -3.9 278 75.9 41 -5.8 256 0.0 5
265 Nebraska Omaha 1.7%   2 - 12 0 - 4 7 - 17 5 - 9 -6.3      -3.5 263 -2.8 249 75.4 46 -9.1 286 -16.0 9
280 North Dakota 1.2%   4 - 13 4 - 7 8 - 17 8 - 11 -7.3      -4.7 292 -2.6 243 68.7 212 -6.3 259 -3.0 6
319 Western Illinois 0.2%   1 - 11 0 - 6 4 - 16 3 - 11 -10.8      -4.6 291 -6.1 321 75.2 50 -15.7 332 -16.5 10
330 Denver 0.1%   0 - 12 0 - 6 3 - 19 3 - 13 -12.8      -5.0 298 -7.8 339 74.1 69 -22.9 344 -15.2 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
South Dakota St. 1.8 49.0 29.0 15.8 5.9 0.3 0.0
North Dakota St. 1.9 40.4 29.6 20.8 7.6 0.3
Oral Roberts 3.3 7.6 15.0 26.4 45.5 5.2 0.3 0.0
South Dakota 2.3 27.9 28.3 27.1 13.8 2.4 0.1 0.0
UMKC 6.3 0.0 1.0 12.1 47.6 31.1 7.1 1.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 9.9 11.2 88.8
Nebraska Omaha 6.5 0.0 0.9 14.4 35.9 32.0 12.3 4.6
North Dakota 4.9 0.3 3.2 15.8 67.4 11.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
Western Illinois 8.1 0.0 0.8 4.5 16.2 42.2 36.2
Denver 8.0 0.0 1.6 7.2 17.9 35.5 37.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 7.6 15.1 23.1 25.3 18.3 7.0
North Dakota St. 13 - 3 0.6 3.8 10.2 18.7 23.8 21.4 14.2 6.0
Oral Roberts 11 - 5 0.1 0.9 4.5 12.7 21.1 24.5 20.0 11.4 4.2 0.8
South Dakota 12 - 4 0.1 0.9 3.0 8.3 15.1 21.0 21.7 17.3 9.1 3.2
UMKC 5 - 11 0.2 1.8 7.3 17.5 25.6 24.8 15.4 5.9 1.3 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 0 - 16 100.0
Nebraska Omaha 5 - 11 0.2 1.2 4.6 11.1 18.1 22.8 20.6 13.4 6.1 1.6 0.2
North Dakota 8 - 8 0.5 3.6 10.6 20.1 25.3 21.7 12.7 4.5 0.9
Western Illinois 3 - 13 4.4 16.8 28.4 26.9 15.3 6.2 1.8 0.3 0.0
Denver 3 - 13 6.6 17.5 24.3 22.9 16.0 8.3 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 49.0% 32.0 13.9 3.0 0.2
North Dakota St. 40.4% 25.0 12.3 2.9 0.2
Oral Roberts 7.6% 3.0 3.0 1.5 0.2
South Dakota 27.9% 15.4 9.7 2.6 0.2
UMKC
Purdue Fort Wayne
Nebraska Omaha
North Dakota
Western Illinois
Denver


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 45.2% 45.1% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 6.3 15.9 14.7 5.2 0.6 54.8 0.2%
North Dakota St. 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.6 12.0 81.0 0.0%
Oral Roberts 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.8 8.9 84.7 0.0%
South Dakota 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.5 6.0 86.0 0.0%
UMKC 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%
North Dakota 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Denver 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 45.2% 0.2% 45.1% 7.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 19.0% 6.6% 16.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 15.3% 4.9% 13.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 14.0% 2.7% 12.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.4% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 91.7% 0.9 8.3 91.7 0.0
2nd Round 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0