Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
137 Georgia St. 2.9%   6 - 4 2 - 3 13 - 7 9 - 6 +2.1      +1.4 138 +0.7 154 74.4 63 +4.5 114 -0.2 4
151 Coastal Carolina 16.1%   7 - 3 5 - 2 13 - 7 11 - 6 +0.7      +2.2 110 -1.6 214 73.8 75 +1.2 156 +1.6 3
153 Texas St. 38.9%   16   10 - 3 5 - 1 17 - 6 12 - 4 +0.5      -1.2 199 +1.8 125 62.2 330 +7.4 75 +9.3 1
155 Arkansas Little Rock 14.2%   7 - 7 4 - 4 14 - 10 11 - 7 +0.4      +1.5 134 -1.0 201 69.6 185 -0.4 171 -1.2 6
171 Appalachian St. 18.0%   8 - 5 6 - 2 13 - 10 11 - 7 -0.7      +1.4 135 -2.1 226 62.8 326 +1.4 151 +1.9 2
176 Louisiana 9.2%   9 - 4 5 - 3 14 - 9 10 - 8 -0.9      -2.4 237 +1.5 130 76.3 39 +1.9 143 -0.5 5
190 Texas Arlington 3.0%   5 - 8 4 - 4 11 - 12 10 - 8 -2.3      -2.1 226 -0.2 177 73.6 78 -2.6 195 -2.2 7
201 South Alabama 0.1%   5 - 8 3 - 5 9 - 14 7 - 11 -2.9      +1.3 139 -4.2 284 64.7 291 -5.3 242 -5.6 9
241 Georgia Southern 0.2%   6 - 7 4 - 4 10 - 13 8 - 10 -5.1      -4.2 279 -0.9 193 68.0 225 -3.5 207 -3.3 8
273 Troy 0.0%   4 - 9 1 - 5 7 - 16 4 - 12 -7.0      -5.5 308 -1.4 211 67.7 231 -3.6 213 -7.4 10
276 Arkansas St. 0.0%   2 - 8 2 - 4 5 - 15 5 - 11 -7.1      -1.6 204 -5.6 312 70.8 152 -14.0 326 -9.5 11
296 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   4 - 11 2 - 6 6 - 19 4 - 14 -8.4      -5.8 313 -2.7 244 66.5 254 -11.1 313 -11.6 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia St. 5.4 2.4 7.3 12.3 14.7 15.8 15.7 12.6 9.6 6.8 2.2 0.7 0.1
Coastal Carolina 3.1 29.1 20.9 14.9 11.9 8.4 6.3 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 2.5 41.3 20.6 13.3 9.3 6.4 4.7 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 3.6 17.9 18.1 18.0 14.8 12.3 9.1 6.2 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 3.2 26.5 20.5 15.6 12.5 9.5 7.6 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 4.0 15.4 14.8 15.4 14.1 12.9 11.8 10.0 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 4.8 7.7 10.2 12.9 14.2 14.9 14.8 14.0 6.4 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
South Alabama 7.8 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.9 8.9 12.5 22.3 24.2 11.5 4.9 1.5
Georgia Southern 7.4 0.9 2.2 3.2 4.7 6.6 9.3 14.3 26.1 20.3 8.8 3.0 0.7
Troy 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.5 7.6 13.1 22.5 27.8 25.0
Arkansas St. 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 5.0 9.4 16.5 31.3 21.7 11.0
Louisiana Monroe 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 7.3 19.7 33.2 35.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 8.7 15.3 20.8 23.6 17.9 7.7
Coastal Carolina 11 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.9 9.9 15.8 20.0 20.4 15.8 8.5 2.3
Texas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.3 12.2 19.1 22.6 20.2 12.6 3.9
Arkansas Little Rock 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.3 12.7 20.2 24.2 20.1 10.6 2.9
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 0.2 1.4 5.0 10.7 17.8 20.9 20.3 14.0 6.8 2.5 0.4
Louisiana 10 - 8 0.1 0.9 3.6 9.3 15.9 21.5 21.1 15.7 8.5 3.0 0.5
Texas Arlington 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.8 13.4 19.9 22.6 18.2 10.9 4.2 0.8
South Alabama 7 - 11 1.0 4.9 11.8 18.6 21.0 19.1 13.1 7.0 2.7 0.7 0.1
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 2.7 9.5 17.4 21.6 20.0 14.8 8.6 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.0
Troy 4 - 14 2.5 9.4 17.4 22.8 20.7 14.9 8.0 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Arkansas St. 5 - 13 4.4 12.2 19.6 21.5 18.6 12.7 6.9 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 4 - 14 14.0 26.3 26.2 18.1 9.7 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia St. 2.4% 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 29.1% 14.6 9.5 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 41.3% 24.2 11.7 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 17.9% 7.3 6.3 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 26.5% 13.0 8.7 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 15.4% 7.0 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 7.7% 2.5 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia St. 2.9% 0.3% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 97.1 2.6%
Coastal Carolina 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 7.1 5.5 0.7 83.9 0.0%
Texas St. 38.9% 38.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 3.1 13.5 17.8 4.2 61.1 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 5.2 6.2 1.3 85.8 0.0%
Appalachian St. 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.6 8.8 5.1 82.0 0.0%
Louisiana 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.2 0.7 90.8 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 97.0 0.0%
South Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Georgia St. 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 16.1% 0.1% 16.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 38.9% 0.7% 38.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 14.2% 0.2% 14.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 18.0% 1.4% 17.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 9.2% 0.1% 9.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.0% 0.7% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 97.3 1.4
2nd Round 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0