West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   15 - 0 6 - 0 25 - 0 16 - 0 +24.7      +16.1 1 +8.5 7 81.5 10 +28.1 1 +20.4 2
33 BYU 96.4%   7   12 - 3 4 - 1 20 - 5 12 - 3 +12.1      +5.8 50 +6.3 31 71.6 127 +16.6 12 +21.2 1
77 St. Mary's 19.2%   11 - 5 2 - 3 17 - 9 8 - 7 +7.2      +2.0 120 +5.3 50 60.6 340 +8.3 72 +5.3 5
84 San Francisco 4.4%   10 - 8 4 - 4 14 - 12 8 - 8 +6.8      +2.9 97 +3.9 72 69.9 177 +4.2 115 +2.2 7
129 Pepperdine 0.4%   4 - 7 2 - 2 9 - 13 7 - 8 +2.6      +2.0 121 +0.6 156 74.6 61 -1.2 175 +7.0 3
138 Loyola Marymount 0.3%   7 - 6 2 - 3 11 - 12 6 - 9 +2.0      -1.6 207 +3.6 81 69.5 193 +2.6 135 -1.5 8
141 Pacific 0.8%   4 - 3 2 - 2 8 - 9 6 - 8 +1.6      -1.2 198 +2.8 102 65.4 278 +4.7 109 +4.4 6
160 Santa Clara 0.2%   8 - 4 3 - 2 12 - 10 7 - 8 +0.2      -3.3 258 +3.4 85 74.8 56 +6.0 87 +7.0 4
195 San Diego 0.0%   2 - 6 1 - 3 5 - 14 4 - 11 -2.6      -2.9 248 +0.3 164 73.0 93 -5.7 254 -5.6 9
291 Portland 0.0%   3 - 9 0 - 6 5 - 17 2 - 14 -8.1      -4.4 283 -3.6 273 77.1 35 -5.8 257 -12.5 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 99.9 0.1 0.0
BYU 2.1 1.3 92.1 4.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 4.1 6.1 37.7 24.1 14.5 8.9 5.2 2.7 0.7 0.0
San Francisco 4.1 5.8 36.0 25.5 15.7 9.3 5.3 2.3 0.2
Pepperdine 5.2 0.0 3.8 19.9 16.9 16.2 14.4 13.5 10.2 4.7 0.4
Loyola Marymount 5.9 1.1 10.0 14.0 17.3 18.6 18.0 14.8 5.5 0.7
Pacific 6.2 1.2 9.3 11.6 13.5 16.0 17.8 19.9 8.8 1.8
Santa Clara 5.5 0.9 10.8 16.7 21.4 21.2 16.3 9.8 2.6 0.3
San Diego 8.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.7 6.5 11.2 19.6 46.8 9.6
Portland 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 5.5 18.0 73.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 16 - 0 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.5 28.5 65.2
BYU 12 - 4 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.5 12.3 23.8 30.4 22.5 4.8
St. Mary's 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 3.0 9.1 18.8 26.2 24.9 13.8 3.3 0.1
San Francisco 8 - 8 0.3 2.4 8.7 20.2 28.5 24.7 12.0 2.9 0.2
Pepperdine 7 - 9 0.2 1.7 5.6 11.9 18.6 21.1 18.7 13.2 6.4 2.2 0.4 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 10 0.2 1.9 7.8 16.7 24.0 23.7 16.0 7.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
Pacific 6 - 10 0.9 4.7 11.7 19.2 22.2 19.6 12.9 6.2 2.1 0.4 0.0
Santa Clara 7 - 9 0.5 3.7 12.7 24.6 28.3 20.2 8.1 1.8 0.2 0.0
San Diego 4 - 12 2.9 11.9 22.7 25.2 19.8 11.1 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Portland 2 - 14 14.9 27.5 26.5 17.6 8.7 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 99.9% 98.7 1.2
BYU 1.3% 0.1 1.2
St. Mary's
San Francisco
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0
Loyola Marymount
Pacific
Santa Clara
San Diego
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 87.7% 12.3% 1   77.9 20.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
BYU 96.4% 8.5% 87.9% 7   0.6 2.0 4.7 9.3 11.5 13.0 15.9 14.3 13.7 7.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 3.6 96.1%
St. Mary's 19.2% 1.6% 17.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.8 7.6 1.2 0.0 80.8 17.9%
San Francisco 4.4% 1.4% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 95.6 3.1%
Pepperdine 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6 0.1%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%
Pacific 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2 0.6%
Santa Clara 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.3% 87.7% 72.9% 57.0% 42.0% 29.6%
BYU 96.4% 0.9% 95.9% 54.0% 20.2% 7.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
St. Mary's 19.2% 9.2% 13.5% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 4.4% 1.7% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 2.3 74.5 22.5 0.8
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 2.9 80.3 16.3 0.4
2nd Round 99.8% 1.6 0.2 43.1 54.1 2.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 90.7% 1.1 9.3 72.3 18.2 0.2
Elite Eight 75.4% 0.8 24.6 70.3 5.1 0.0
Final Four 58.4% 0.6 41.6 57.2 1.2
Final Game 42.6% 0.4 57.4 42.4 0.2
Champion 29.8% 0.3 70.2 29.8