Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
123 New Mexico St. 42.2%   16   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 4 7 - 3 +3.3      +0.1 169 +3.3 91 64.2 305 -18.8 339 0.0 3
142 Grand Canyon 34.8%   7 - 3 4 - 0 15 - 6 11 - 3 +1.5      +2.4 109 -0.9 192 65.4 279 +2.5 138 +5.3 2
149 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   8 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 9 0 - 0 +0.9      -1.9 218 +2.8 103 62.8 325 +3.9 119 0.0 3
222 UT Rio Grande Valley 10.3%   5 - 3 2 - 0 11 - 7 8 - 4 -4.1      -4.2 276 +0.1 169 74.8 57 -2.7 196 -2.0 6
233 Utah Valley 8.7%   3 - 6 3 - 0 8 - 11 8 - 5 -4.8      -2.3 233 -2.5 237 73.4 82 -5.2 239 +8.8 1
260 California Baptist 0.1%   4 - 4 2 - 2 9 - 9 7 - 7 -6.1      +0.3 162 -6.3 324 69.9 171 -9.2 288 -8.3 7
262 Seattle 3.8%   3 - 6 0 - 1 7 - 12 4 - 7 -6.1      -3.8 270 -2.3 234 71.9 122 -8.1 280 -23.0 10
326 Tarleton St. 0.1%   0 - 7 0 - 4 2 - 13 2 - 10 -11.9      -5.1 301 -6.8 331 69.3 196 -14.4 330 -17.5 9
339 Dixie St. 0.0%   2 - 7 0 - 4 4 - 15 2 - 10 -14.2      -12.3 344 -1.9 223 75.8 42 -10.8 310 -16.5 8
347 Chicago St. 0.0%   0 - 9 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 0 -20.7      -15.6 347 -5.1 306 71.4 133 -16.4 334 0.0 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
New Mexico St. 3.2 9.9 27.0 25.9 18.6 12.5 4.6 1.3 0.2
Grand Canyon 1.3 79.7 11.5 5.1 2.6 1.0 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 8.7 0.3 24.8 74.9
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.2 12.1 25.9 21.1 19.4 16.1 4.5 0.8 0.0
Utah Valley 2.6 14.9 38.2 23.5 16.8 6.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 4.0 3.1 12.5 20.1 24.5 29.1 9.3 1.2 0.1
Seattle 5.7 0.2 2.0 4.8 8.5 18.0 42.7 18.4 5.5
Tarleton St. 7.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.0 16.0 39.9 40.0
Dixie St. 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.6 24.4 37.2 32.6
Chicago St. 8.7 0.3 24.8 74.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 7 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 7.5 12.4 19.3 23.0 20.7 10.9
Grand Canyon 11 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 6.2 11.9 18.5 21.9 20.2 13.3 4.8
Cal St. Bakersfield 0 - 16 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 8 - 8 0.1 1.0 3.5 8.6 14.8 19.4 20.6 16.7 9.9 4.4 1.0
Utah Valley 8 - 8 0.0 0.5 2.6 8.0 17.8 25.9 24.4 14.2 5.2 1.2 0.2
California Baptist 7 - 9 0.2 1.9 7.1 15.4 22.8 23.7 17.4 8.1 2.6 0.6 0.1
Seattle 4 - 12 1.5 6.4 13.0 19.5 21.0 17.5 11.6 6.1 2.6 0.7 0.1
Tarleton St. 2 - 14 14.4 27.8 27.4 18.2 8.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Dixie St. 2 - 14 9.5 23.2 28.0 21.7 11.8 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Chicago St. 0 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 9.9% 3.0 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.0
Grand Canyon 79.7% 66.6 10.4 2.4 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield
UT Rio Grande Valley 12.1% 5.7 4.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
Utah Valley 14.9% 7.0 5.8 1.8 0.3 0.0
California Baptist 3.1% 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Seattle 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St.
Dixie St. 0.0% 0.0
Chicago St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 42.2% 42.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.2 5.0 9.2 11.7 11.7 57.8 0.0%
Grand Canyon 34.8% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.1 10.3 12.8 6.6 65.2 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
UT Rio Grande Valley 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 7.5 89.7 0.0%
Utah Valley 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.6 91.3 0.0%
California Baptist 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Seattle 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6 96.2 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 42.2% 5.8% 40.4% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 34.8% 2.2% 33.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 10.3% 5.0% 7.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 8.7% 5.0% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 3.8% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 91.0% 0.9 9.0 91.0 0.0
2nd Round 8.8% 0.1 91.2 8.8
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0