Abilene Christian
Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#124
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#110
Pace68.7#212
Improvement-3.8#329

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#266
First Shot-2.1#228
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#257
Layup/Dunks+2.8#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#258
Freethrows-1.5#266
Improvement-2.5#322

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#29
First Shot+6.2#25
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#164
Layups/Dunks+3.5#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#10
Freethrows-4.0#333
Improvement-1.3#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.9% 39.9% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 39.4% 42.2% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.5%
First Round38.6% 39.6% 29.4%
Second Round4.0% 4.2% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 32 - 22 - 4
Quad 416 - 218 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 138   East Tennessee St. W 70-47 54%     1 - 0 +24.9 -0.6 +25.2
  Nov 27, 2020 196   Austin Peay W 80-72 70%     2 - 0 +5.3 -2.8 +7.5
  Nov 28, 2020 263   Nebraska Omaha W 70-58 80%     3 - 0 +5.8 -9.5 +14.7
  Dec 05, 2020 325   Tarleton St. W 69-48 93%     4 - 0 +7.0 -10.8 +18.1
  Dec 09, 2020 16   @ Texas Tech L 44-51 10%     4 - 1 +10.2 -14.8 +24.3
  Dec 22, 2020 42   @ Arkansas L 72-85 17%     4 - 2 -0.1 +3.4 -3.1
  Jan 02, 2021 306   Lamar W 83-65 90%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +7.0 +2.1 +3.8
  Jan 06, 2021 330   @ Houston Baptist W 66-63 90%     6 - 2 2 - 0 -7.9 -15.8 +7.9
  Jan 16, 2021 323   SE Louisiana W 76-42 92%     7 - 2 3 - 0 +20.8 -5.7 +25.7
  Jan 20, 2021 176   @ Sam Houston St. L 57-64 58%     7 - 3 3 - 1 -6.4 -13.0 +6.3
  Jan 23, 2021 281   Central Arkansas W 78-66 89%    
  Jan 27, 2021 153   Stephen F. Austin W 70-66 69%    
  Jan 30, 2021 326   @ Incarnate Word W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 01, 2021 320   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-56 85%    
  Feb 06, 2021 306   @ Lamar W 69-59 80%    
  Feb 10, 2021 330   Houston Baptist W 82-65 95%    
  Feb 13, 2021 320   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-54 94%    
  Feb 20, 2021 323   @ SE Louisiana W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 24, 2021 176   Sam Houston St. W 71-65 73%    
  Feb 27, 2021 281   @ Central Arkansas W 76-68 75%    
  Mar 03, 2021 153   @ Stephen F. Austin W 69-68 47%    
  Mar 06, 2021 326   Incarnate Word W 72-55 95%    
Projected Record 17 - 5 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 8.3 19.0 11.1 39.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.0 13.7 4.2 25.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.6 9.2 3.9 0.1 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.6 2.7 0.2 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.5 11.3 19.8 26.0 23.3 11.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 11.1    9.9 1.2
14-2 81.6% 19.0    9.3 8.2 1.5 0.0
13-3 31.8% 8.3    1.8 3.7 2.3 0.5
12-4 4.8% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.4% 39.4 21.0 13.4 4.3 0.7 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 11.1% 58.4% 58.4% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.3 1.0 0.1 4.6 0.0%
14-2 23.3% 51.9% 51.9% 13.9 0.3 3.4 6.2 2.2 0.0 11.2
13-3 26.0% 40.8% 40.8% 14.4 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.6 0.6 15.4
12-4 19.8% 29.6% 29.6% 14.9 0.1 1.5 3.2 1.0 14.0
11-5 11.3% 22.9% 22.9% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.9 8.7
10-6 5.5% 16.6% 16.6% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.5 4.6
9-7 2.0% 9.3% 9.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8
8-8 0.7% 9.9% 9.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
7-9 0.2% 0.2
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 38.9% 38.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.8 13.6 11.7 3.3 61.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.4 28.8 51.3 14.9 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4% 0.1% 13.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%