Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#268
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#196
Pace58.6#346
Improvement-0.9#225

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#242
First Shot+3.2#86
After Offensive Rebound-5.8#347
Layup/Dunks+2.2#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#123
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement+1.4#74

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#283
First Shot-2.5#252
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#266
Layups/Dunks+0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#330
Freethrows+2.5#38
Improvement-2.3#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 5.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 6.5% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 1.3% 6.5%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 41 - 9
Quad 31 - 32 - 12
Quad 46 - 58 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 264   Cal St. Northridge W 66-61 49%     1 - 0 -1.2 -7.3 +6.6
  Nov 29, 2020 252   Seattle L 45-63 47%     1 - 1 -23.8 -19.8 -8.2
  Dec 05, 2020 306   Lamar W 59-44 67%     2 - 1 +4.0 -9.0 +14.9
  Dec 13, 2020 47   @ Drake L 53-81 5%     2 - 2 -15.3 -11.5 -5.8
  Dec 18, 2020 99   @ Nevada L 57-74 11%     2 - 3 0 - 1 -10.3 -12.6 +2.1
  Dec 20, 2020 99   @ Nevada W 68-66 11%     3 - 3 1 - 1 +8.7 -1.1 +9.8
  Dec 31, 2020 43   Utah St. L 48-83 8%     3 - 4 1 - 2 -25.8 -12.2 -17.6
  Jan 02, 2021 43   Utah St. L 53-72 8%     3 - 5 1 - 3 -9.8 -8.0 -3.5
  Jan 06, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 59-78 4%     3 - 6 1 - 4 -5.5 -6.9 +1.2
  Jan 08, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 69-80 4%     3 - 7 1 - 5 +2.5 +13.0 -12.2
  Jan 16, 2021 182   Wyoming W 72-69 39%     4 - 7 2 - 5 -0.7 +2.2 -2.6
  Jan 18, 2021 182   Wyoming L 58-77 39%     4 - 8 2 - 6 -22.7 -13.2 -11.6
  Jan 22, 2021 42   San Diego St. L 52-68 8%    
  Jan 24, 2021 42   San Diego St. L 52-68 9%    
  Jan 28, 2021 324   @ San Jose St. W 72-68 60%    
  Jan 30, 2021 324   @ San Jose St. W 72-68 59%    
  Feb 06, 2021 113   @ UNLV L 59-71 11%    
  Feb 08, 2021 113   @ UNLV L 59-71 11%    
  Feb 11, 2021 183   Fresno St. L 60-63 45%    
  Feb 13, 2021 183   Fresno St. L 60-63 45%    
  Feb 22, 2021 235   New Mexico W 62-61 54%    
  Feb 24, 2021 235   New Mexico W 62-61 55%    
  Feb 27, 2021 71   @ Colorado St. L 59-75 6%    
  Mar 01, 2021 71   @ Colorado St. L 59-75 6%    
Projected Record 8 - 16 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.2 4.2 8.9 5.7 1.3 0.1 20.3 7th
8th 0.4 4.9 11.5 6.1 1.0 0.1 24.0 8th
9th 0.4 6.4 14.0 7.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 29.1 9th
10th 0.7 5.4 8.6 3.6 0.3 0.0 18.6 10th
11th 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 1.6 6.9 15.5 22.6 23.2 16.8 8.9 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 0.9% 0.9
9-11 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.3
8-12 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
7-13 16.8% 16.8
6-14 23.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.2
5-15 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.6
4-16 15.5% 15.5
3-17 6.9% 6.9
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%