Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.2#333
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#71
Pace73.7#79
Improvement-0.2#200

Offense
Total Offense-9.0#337
First Shot-6.7#320
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#285
Layup/Dunks+7.5#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.5#347
Freethrows-0.9#229
Improvement-0.6#232

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#295
First Shot-2.8#261
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#250
Layups/Dunks-4.7#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#3
Freethrows-6.3#344
Improvement+0.4#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 5.5% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 53.1% 59.3% 27.3%
.500 or above in Conference 20.9% 24.7% 5.5%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.1% 7.7%
First Four2.9% 3.1% 1.8%
First Round2.6% 3.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 31 - 11 - 1
Quad 48 - 79 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 29, 2020 264   @ Samford W 78-76 21%     1 - 0 -2.6 -8.0 +5.1
  Dec 19, 2020 211   South Alabama W 93-90 2OT 22%     2 - 0 -2.0 -6.4 +3.7
  Jan 16, 2021 346   Alabama St. W 68-60 80%    
  Jan 23, 2021 297   Southern L 68-71 43%    
  Jan 25, 2021 343   Alcorn St. W 78-73 72%    
  Jan 30, 2021 266   @ Prairie View L 67-75 19%    
  Feb 01, 2021 228   @ Texas Southern L 68-78 15%    
  Feb 06, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 85-69 94%    
  Feb 08, 2021 336   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-71 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 346   @ Alabama St. W 67-62 61%    
  Feb 20, 2021 297   @ Southern L 66-72 25%    
  Feb 22, 2021 343   @ Alcorn St. W 76-74 51%    
  Feb 27, 2021 266   Prairie View L 68-73 37%    
  Mar 01, 2021 228   Texas Southern L 70-77 31%    
  Mar 04, 2021 309   @ Jackson St. L 64-69 29%    
  Mar 06, 2021 313   @ Grambling St. L 65-70 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 8 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 6.1 4.6 1.1 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 7.4 5.0 1.0 0.1 16.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 7.2 4.6 0.5 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.9 4.9 0.8 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 6.1 5.2 1.0 0.0 14.1 8th
9th 0.5 2.5 4.7 3.4 0.8 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.5 11.0 14.0 16.1 15.0 12.5 9.6 6.2 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-5 95.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1
12-6 69.3% 1.0    0.5 0.5 0.1
11-7 21.4% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 61.3% 61.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 32.3% 32.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.5% 22.5% 22.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.2
11-7 3.1% 19.8% 19.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 2.5
10-8 6.2% 14.5% 14.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 5.3
9-9 9.6% 11.3% 11.3% 15.9 0.1 1.0 8.5
8-10 12.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 11.8
7-11 15.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 14.5
6-12 16.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.8
5-13 14.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.9
4-14 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
3-15 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.6 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.2 2.6 73.7 23.7
Lose Out 0.2%