Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-19.5#346
Expected Predictive Rating-22.0#344
Pace63.7#311
Improvement+0.1#167

Offense
Total Offense-12.4#345
First Shot-8.6#339
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#329
Layup/Dunks-1.8#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#328
Freethrows-1.4#259
Improvement+0.3#138

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#333
First Shot-5.8#325
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#253
Layups/Dunks+0.6#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#293
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#319
Freethrows+0.8#140
Improvement-0.2#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.2% 7.0% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.6% 11.0% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 1.1% 7.8%
First Four0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 30 - 20 - 2
Quad 45 - 125 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 02, 2021 313   Grambling St. L 49-66 23%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -28.6 -28.5 +0.4
  Jan 04, 2021 309   Jackson St. L 44-60 22%     0 - 2 0 - 2 -27.3 -24.7 -4.6
  Jan 09, 2021 336   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 82-91 23%     0 - 3 0 - 3 -20.9 +2.2 -23.0
  Jan 12, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 64-51 73%     1 - 3 1 - 3 -12.7 -14.3 +3.2
  Jan 16, 2021 333   @ Alabama A&M L 60-68 20%    
  Jan 23, 2021 343   Alcorn St. L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 25, 2021 297   Southern L 60-69 23%    
  Jan 30, 2021 228   @ Texas Southern L 59-76 5%    
  Feb 01, 2021 266   @ Prairie View L 58-73 8%    
  Feb 06, 2021 336   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 65-69 39%    
  Feb 08, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 75-66 84%    
  Feb 13, 2021 333   Alabama A&M L 62-67 39%    
  Feb 20, 2021 343   @ Alcorn St. L 67-72 30%    
  Feb 22, 2021 297   @ Southern L 58-71 11%    
  Feb 27, 2021 228   Texas Southern L 61-74 15%    
  Mar 01, 2021 266   Prairie View L 60-71 19%    
  Mar 04, 2021 313   @ Grambling St. L 57-68 13%    
  Mar 06, 2021 309   @ Jackson St. L 56-67 13%    
Projected Record 5 - 13 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 6.0 2.9 0.3 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 7.5 4.7 0.5 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.6 10.1 7.0 1.2 0.0 22.0 8th
9th 0.7 8.7 14.6 8.4 1.4 0.1 33.9 9th
10th 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 1.8 9.8 18.6 20.7 18.0 14.1 8.8 4.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 60.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 27.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.3% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
9-9 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
8-10 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.5
7-11 8.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.8
6-12 14.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.0
5-13 18.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.0
4-14 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.7
3-15 18.6% 18.6
2-16 9.8% 9.8
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%