Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.8#337
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#314
Pace72.1#113
Improvement+3.6#23

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#318
First Shot-6.6#319
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#155
Layup/Dunks-9.1#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#314
Freethrows+1.3#94
Improvement+0.1#156

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#337
First Shot-8.2#342
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#126
Layups/Dunks-2.7#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#280
Freethrows-3.4#326
Improvement+3.5#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.8% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 12.9% 25.8% 7.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.1% 58.6% 24.5%
Conference Champion 3.7% 7.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.7% 3.7% 2.2%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 48 - 68 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 98   @ UAB L 50-99 4%     0 - 1 -41.7 -23.0 -14.2
  Dec 20, 2020 6   @ Houston L 55-88 1%     0 - 2 -13.5 -4.3 -10.7
  Dec 22, 2020 121   @ Liberty L 65-108 5%     0 - 3 -37.8 -6.4 -30.5
  Dec 27, 2020 146   @ Vanderbilt L 59-87 7%     0 - 4 -25.0 -15.6 -9.0
  Dec 30, 2020 2   @ Baylor L 76-105 0.2%    0 - 5 -4.0 +12.2 -15.3
  Jan 12, 2021 313   @ Grambling St. L 74-79 30%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -13.4 -5.0 -8.0
  Jan 16, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 71-59 94%     1 - 6 1 - 1 -19.7 -8.2 -9.9
  Jan 18, 2021 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-48 70%     2 - 6 2 - 1 +14.8 +3.9 +12.3
  Jan 23, 2021 346   @ Alabama St. W 57-52 66%     3 - 6 3 - 1 -12.9 -18.2 +5.5
  Jan 25, 2021 324   @ Alabama A&M L 70-74 31%    
  Jan 30, 2021 279   Southern L 69-74 38%    
  Feb 06, 2021 293   Jackson St. L 67-71 40%    
  Feb 08, 2021 313   Grambling St. L 69-71 48%    
  Feb 13, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 15, 2021 343   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-71 53%    
  Feb 20, 2021 346   Alabama St. W 71-63 80%    
  Feb 22, 2021 324   Alabama A&M L 71-72 52%    
  Feb 27, 2021 279   @ Southern L 68-76 20%    
  Mar 04, 2021 252   @ Texas Southern L 70-80 16%    
  Mar 06, 2021 240   @ Prairie View L 64-74 15%    
Projected Record 8 - 12 8 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 3.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 1.4 7.1 5.1 0.5 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 10.1 8.6 1.2 0.0 21.4 4th
5th 0.7 8.0 8.1 0.7 17.5 5th
6th 0.1 4.6 8.6 1.2 14.5 6th
7th 0.2 3.3 7.5 2.3 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.7 0.1 6.2 8th
9th 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 1.5 7.4 14.5 20.5 20.8 17.6 10.8 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-5 96.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1
12-6 77.4% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.0
11-7 30.1% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
10-8 5.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 0.3
12-6 1.7% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.2 1.5
11-7 4.7% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.5 4.2
10-8 10.8% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.6 10.1
9-9 17.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.6 17.1
8-10 20.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 20.4
7-11 20.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 20.2
6-12 14.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.4
5-13 7.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%