Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#171
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#153
Pace62.7#326
Improvement+2.2#59

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#132
First Shot+0.8#158
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#135
Layup/Dunks+0.7#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#117
Freethrows+1.4#86
Improvement+2.3#46

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#227
First Shot-2.3#240
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#157
Layups/Dunks-1.4#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#322
Freethrows+4.2#3
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.8% 24.1% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.1
.500 or above 83.1% 90.8% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 97.4% 87.8%
Conference Champion 26.5% 34.5% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.6% 0.6%
First Round17.5% 23.6% 7.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 36 - 7
Quad 48 - 313 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 345   @ South Carolina St. W 79-65 93%     1 - 0 -3.7 +4.0 -6.7
  Nov 30, 2020 131   Bowling Green L 76-78 OT 45%     1 - 1 -1.4 -5.4 +4.1
  Dec 11, 2020 165   @ Charlotte W 61-57 42%     2 - 1 +5.4 -3.7 +9.5
  Dec 15, 2020 13   @ Tennessee L 38-79 5%     2 - 2 -23.4 -16.8 -14.1
  Dec 22, 2020 57   @ Auburn L 53-67 12%     2 - 3 -2.0 -4.1 -0.7
  Jan 01, 2021 273   Troy L 56-69 78%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -21.9 -14.3 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2021 273   Troy W 90-59 78%     3 - 4 1 - 1 +22.1 +16.2 +6.4
  Jan 08, 2021 237   Georgia Southern W 66-63 73%     4 - 4 2 - 1 -3.9 -3.1 -0.6
  Jan 09, 2021 237   Georgia Southern W 77-71 73%     5 - 4 3 - 1 -0.9 +8.0 -8.4
  Jan 15, 2021 199   @ South Alabama L 64-73 51%     5 - 5 3 - 2 -10.0 -8.3 -2.2
  Jan 16, 2021 199   @ South Alabama W 83-77 51%     6 - 5 4 - 2 +5.0 +11.5 -6.2
  Jan 22, 2021 137   Georgia St. W 80-71 47%     7 - 5 5 - 2 +9.2 +8.4 +1.0
  Jan 23, 2021 137   Georgia St. W 74-61 47%     8 - 5 6 - 2 +13.2 +5.5 +8.5
  Jan 29, 2021 273   @ Troy W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 30, 2021 273   @ Troy W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 05, 2021 137   @ Georgia St. L 69-74 29%    
  Feb 06, 2021 137   @ Georgia St. L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 11, 2021 152   Coastal Carolina W 73-72 56%    
  Feb 13, 2021 152   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-74 35%    
  Feb 19, 2021 199   South Alabama W 71-67 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 199   South Alabama W 71-67 69%    
  Feb 26, 2021 237   @ Georgia Southern W 68-65 55%    
  Feb 27, 2021 237   @ Georgia Southern W 68-65 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.8 9.9 6.9 2.7 0.4 26.5 1st
2nd 0.5 6.4 10.1 3.7 0.3 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 8.8 3.8 0.2 15.8 3rd
4th 1.1 5.8 4.8 0.3 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 5.9 1.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.9 1.8 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.2 4.3 7th
8th 0.6 1.5 0.4 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.7 10.7 17.3 21.9 20.0 13.8 7.2 2.7 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-3 100.0% 2.7    2.5 0.1
14-4 96.4% 6.9    5.3 1.6 0.1
13-5 71.9% 9.9    4.3 4.6 1.0 0.1
12-6 28.8% 5.8    0.9 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.5% 26.5 13.4 8.5 3.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 100.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 2.7% 95.9% 95.9% 14.4 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.1
14-4 7.2% 77.7% 77.7% 14.8 0.1 1.8 2.9 0.8 1.6
13-5 13.8% 46.6% 46.6% 15.2 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.0 7.4
12-6 20.0% 13.4% 13.4% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.6 17.3
11-7 21.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 21.7
10-8 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.2
9-9 10.7% 10.7
8-10 4.7% 4.7
7-11 1.3% 1.3
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.5 4.7 82.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.4 7.1 54.3 30.0 8.6
Lose Out 0.2%