Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#77
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#137
Pace79.4#19
Improvement-0.8#218

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#70
First Shot+7.1#27
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#295
Layup/Dunks+2.0#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#96
Freethrows+2.4#40
Improvement-0.5#208

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#107
First Shot-0.4#177
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#21
Layups/Dunks-0.5#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
Freethrows-2.5#307
Improvement-0.3#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 11.5% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.1% 8.9% 1.5%
Average Seed 11.3 10.7 11.8
.500 or above 16.5% 33.0% 11.9%
.500 or above in Conference 13.2% 28.4% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 3.5% 10.0%
First Four1.6% 3.7% 1.0%
First Round4.6% 9.6% 3.2%
Second Round1.6% 3.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 21.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 22 - 44 - 12
Quad 34 - 38 - 15
Quad 43 - 111 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 68   Rhode Island W 94-88 46%     1 - 0 +14.3 +14.8 -1.2
  Nov 26, 2020 5   Villanova L 74-83 16%     1 - 1 +9.0 +4.2 +5.1
  Nov 29, 2020 332   Houston Baptist W 100-77 97%     2 - 1 +8.0 +3.8 +1.1
  Dec 03, 2020 132   @ California W 70-62 61%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +12.3 -2.1 +14.2
  Dec 10, 2020 37   San Diego St. L 68-80 40%     3 - 2 -2.1 -0.9 -0.7
  Dec 13, 2020 157   @ Grand Canyon W 71-70 69%     4 - 2 +3.2 -4.5 +7.7
  Dec 16, 2020 147   UTEP L 63-76 78%     4 - 3 -13.9 -16.4 +3.5
  Jan 07, 2021 26   UCLA L 75-81 OT 35%     4 - 4 1 - 1 +5.1 -4.5 +10.4
  Jan 09, 2021 24   USC L 64-73 33%     4 - 5 1 - 2 +2.6 -5.7 +8.8
  Jan 16, 2021 141   @ Oregon St. L 79-80 64%     4 - 6 1 - 3 +2.5 +13.5 -11.1
  Jan 21, 2021 29   Arizona L 82-84 37%     4 - 7 1 - 4 +8.6 +7.4 +1.3
  Jan 25, 2021 29   @ Arizona L 76-83 21%    
  Jan 28, 2021 132   California W 76-69 77%    
  Jan 30, 2021 48   Stanford L 75-77 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 71   @ Utah L 73-76 36%    
  Feb 11, 2021 19   Oregon L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 17, 2021 24   @ USC L 72-80 20%    
  Feb 20, 2021 26   @ UCLA L 71-79 21%    
  Feb 25, 2021 133   Washington W 82-75 75%    
  Feb 27, 2021 130   Washington St. W 77-70 76%    
  Mar 08, 2021 24   USC L 74-78 39%    
  Mar 08, 2021 141   @ Oregon St. W 77-73 58%    
  Mar 08, 2021 20   @ Colorado L 72-81 17%    
  Mar 09, 2021 141   Oregon St. W 78-71 77%    
  Mar 09, 2021 24   @ USC L 72-80 20%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 7 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.4 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.7 1.5 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.9 10.3 8.4 2.9 0.3 27.2 7th
8th 0.4 4.5 9.6 6.1 1.4 0.1 22.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 8.2 4.0 0.6 0.1 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 5.8 3.2 0.4 10.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.9 2.8 0.4 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.7 12.1 16.9 18.9 17.6 12.6 7.7 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.4% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-8 1.3% 72.8% 5.9% 66.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 71.1%
11-9 3.6% 36.8% 7.4% 29.4% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3 31.7%
10-10 7.7% 13.0% 5.6% 7.4% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 6.7 7.9%
9-11 12.6% 4.1% 3.8% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.1 0.3%
8-12 17.6% 2.2% 2.2% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.2
7-13 18.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.2 0.0 18.7
6-14 16.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 16.7
5-15 12.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
4-16 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 5.2% 2.2% 3.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 94.8 3.1%