Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#154
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#171
Pace69.6#183
Improvement-3.1#318

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#130
First Shot+1.6#132
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks+4.5#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#317
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement-4.2#341

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot-0.6#184
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#205
Layups/Dunks+0.0#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#278
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement+1.1#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 15.4% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 91.0% 93.6% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 93.6% 73.5%
Conference Champion 17.8% 19.7% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round13.9% 15.4% 4.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 410 - 314 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 229   Prairie View W 71-66 69%     1 - 0 +0.4 -1.0 +1.3
  Nov 27, 2020 114   UNC Greensboro L 70-77 36%     1 - 1 -3.0 -0.4 -2.4
  Nov 30, 2020 126   Duquesne W 76-66 41%     2 - 1 +12.9 +4.4 +8.2
  Dec 03, 2020 112   Winthrop L 75-80 36%     2 - 2 -0.8 +1.5 -2.1
  Dec 06, 2020 291   Central Arkansas W 86-83 84%     3 - 2 -6.9 -4.1 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2020 92   @ Missouri St. L 77-85 25%     3 - 3 -0.7 +5.7 -6.2
  Jan 01, 2021 191   Texas Arlington W 102-93 67%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +5.1 +14.7 -10.8
  Jan 02, 2021 191   Texas Arlington W 75-62 67%     5 - 3 2 - 0 +9.1 +1.2 +7.8
  Jan 08, 2021 174   @ Louisiana L 64-66 49%     5 - 4 2 - 1 -1.2 -3.7 +2.4
  Jan 09, 2021 174   @ Louisiana W 78-76 OT 49%     6 - 4 3 - 1 +2.8 +3.4 -0.7
  Jan 15, 2021 153   Texas St. L 59-63 56%     6 - 5 3 - 2 -5.2 -9.2 +3.8
  Jan 16, 2021 153   Texas St. L 56-67 56%     6 - 6 3 - 3 -12.2 -2.6 -12.1
  Jan 22, 2021 191   @ Texas Arlington W 66-59 54%     7 - 6 4 - 3 +6.4 -10.2 +16.2
  Jan 23, 2021 191   @ Texas Arlington L 61-66 54%     7 - 7 4 - 4 -5.6 -8.6 +2.7
  Jan 29, 2021 294   Louisiana Monroe W 74-63 87%    
  Jan 30, 2021 294   Louisiana Monroe W 74-63 87%    
  Feb 05, 2021 153   @ Texas St. L 66-68 38%    
  Feb 06, 2021 153   @ Texas St. L 66-68 39%    
  Feb 10, 2021 276   @ Arkansas St. W 78-72 67%    
  Feb 13, 2021 276   Arkansas St. W 79-70 83%    
  Feb 19, 2021 294   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 20, 2021 294   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 26, 2021 174   Louisiana W 75-72 66%    
  Feb 27, 2021 174   Louisiana W 75-72 66%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 6.2 8.0 2.6 17.8 1st
2nd 0.5 5.7 9.4 2.5 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 10.2 4.1 0.2 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.6 5.8 0.4 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 4.1 6.8 1.3 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.3 2.2 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.1 12.8 20.4 24.1 20.2 10.7 2.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 94.8% 2.6    2.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 74.8% 8.0    4.1 3.2 0.7 0.1
12-6 30.6% 6.2    1.0 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.1% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 7.3 6.1 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.8% 91.1% 91.1% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.2
13-5 10.7% 60.7% 60.7% 14.5 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.9 0.2 4.2
12-6 20.2% 21.2% 21.2% 14.9 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.7 15.9
11-7 24.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 23.4
10-8 20.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 20.4
9-9 12.8% 12.8
8-10 6.1% 6.1
7-11 2.2% 2.2
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 1.3 5.2 6.3 1.1 86.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 91.1% 13.7 1.8 32.1 47.3 9.7 0.2