Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#336
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#235
Pace73.6#80
Improvement+0.9#108

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#325
First Shot-7.1#326
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#167
Layup/Dunks-5.1#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#331
Freethrows+2.7#38
Improvement+2.2#46

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#327
First Shot-3.9#299
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#318
Layups/Dunks+1.7#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#255
Freethrows-1.2#246
Improvement-1.3#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 6.0% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.3% 15.3% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 66.2% 35.2%
Conference Champion 5.7% 13.7% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four3.5% 6.0% 2.8%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Away) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 49 - 810 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 55   @ Marquette L 57-99 2%     0 - 1 -30.3 -16.7 -10.2
  Nov 27, 2020 11   @ Wisconsin L 58-92 1%     0 - 2 -16.1 -7.3 -8.2
  Nov 29, 2020 104   @ Iowa St. L 63-80 5%     0 - 3 -11.0 -7.5 -3.6
  Dec 02, 2020 63   @ Northwestern L 49-92 2%     0 - 4 -32.9 -22.2 -8.3
  Dec 05, 2020 31   @ Saint Louis L 54-107 1%     0 - 5 -38.9 -14.0 -23.6
  Dec 09, 2020 300   @ Arkansas St. W 75-74 27%     1 - 5 -6.1 -2.6 -3.5
  Dec 12, 2020 180   @ Tulane L 56-67 11%     1 - 6 -10.9 -13.0 +1.8
  Dec 15, 2020 114   @ North Texas L 56-81 5%     1 - 7 -19.4 -11.7 -8.3
  Dec 21, 2020 2   @ Baylor L 42-99 0.3%    1 - 8 -32.9 -20.0 -12.4
  Jan 02, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 92-52 92%     2 - 8 1 - 0 +11.1 -5.1 +12.1
  Jan 09, 2021 346   Alabama St. W 91-82 77%     3 - 8 2 - 0 -12.0 +8.9 -21.1
  Jan 16, 2021 297   @ Southern L 68-75 22%    
  Jan 18, 2021 343   @ Alcorn St. W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 23, 2021 228   Texas Southern L 72-79 28%    
  Jan 25, 2021 266   Prairie View L 70-76 35%    
  Jan 30, 2021 313   @ Grambling St. L 68-73 27%    
  Feb 01, 2021 309   @ Jackson St. L 66-71 27%    
  Feb 06, 2021 346   @ Alabama St. W 69-65 61%    
  Feb 08, 2021 333   @ Alabama A&M L 71-73 38%    
  Feb 13, 2021 297   Southern L 70-73 43%    
  Feb 15, 2021 343   Alcorn St. W 80-75 70%    
  Feb 20, 2021 228   @ Texas Southern L 70-81 14%    
  Feb 22, 2021 266   @ Prairie View L 68-77 18%    
  Feb 27, 2021 313   Grambling St. L 69-71 48%    
  Mar 01, 2021 309   Jackson St. L 68-70 47%    
  Mar 06, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 85-73 84%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 8 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.5 5.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 9.8 8.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 24.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 7.5 5.5 1.0 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.5 4.7 0.6 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.4 3.4 4.1 0.9 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 3.3 7.4 12.8 16.2 17.2 15.3 11.8 7.7 4.2 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 99.8% 0.6    0.6 0.1
13-5 77.7% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1
12-6 43.6% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 14.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 5.7% 5.7 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 95.8% 95.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 21.0% 21.0% 16.0 0.1 0.5
13-5 2.1% 15.9% 15.9% 16.0 0.3 1.7
12-6 4.2% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.5 3.7
11-7 7.7% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.6 7.1
10-8 11.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 11.3
9-9 15.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.5 14.9
8-10 17.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 16.7
7-11 16.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 15.9
6-12 12.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.7
5-13 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 16.0 3.5 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%