Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#291
Expected Predictive Rating-14.0#324
Pace71.4#138
Improvement+1.4#93

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#225
First Shot-3.6#268
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#98
Layup/Dunks+0.1#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.5#344
Freethrows+4.8#4
Improvement+2.6#38

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#311
First Shot-5.3#316
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#196
Layups/Dunks-6.1#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#33
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#153
Freethrows-2.1#294
Improvement-1.2#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 n/a
.500 or above 2.2% 7.9% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 15.7% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.8% 8.3% 28.2%
First Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 16.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 44 - 55 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 89   @ Marshall L 56-70 8%     0 - 1 -5.8 -17.1 +12.4
  Nov 29, 2020 190   @ Morehead St. L 61-69 25%     0 - 2 -8.6 -4.6 -4.6
  Dec 02, 2020 63   @ Memphis L 54-83 5%     0 - 3 -18.1 -14.4 -0.8
  Dec 09, 2020 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74-75 85%     0 - 4 -19.9 -8.5 -11.4
  Jan 01, 2021 299   @ Louisiana Monroe L 72-84 47%     0 - 5 0 - 1 -19.0 -4.7 -13.9
  Jan 02, 2021 299   @ Louisiana Monroe L 55-62 47%     0 - 6 0 - 2 -14.0 -17.1 +2.8
  Jan 15, 2021 299   Louisiana Monroe W 74-72 61%     1 - 6 1 - 2 -8.6 -5.6 -3.1
  Jan 16, 2021 299   Louisiana Monroe W 93-72 61%     2 - 6 2 - 2 +10.4 +15.0 -5.0
  Jan 22, 2021 166   @ Louisiana L 68-81 20%     2 - 7 2 - 3 -11.7 -4.0 -7.3
  Jan 23, 2021 166   @ Louisiana L 70-79 17%    
  Jan 29, 2021 197   Texas Arlington L 74-77 43%    
  Jan 30, 2021 197   Texas Arlington L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 05, 2021 166   Louisiana L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 06, 2021 166   Louisiana L 72-77 37%    
  Feb 10, 2021 150   Arkansas Little Rock L 72-79 32%    
  Feb 13, 2021 150   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 70-80 14%    
  Feb 19, 2021 149   Texas St. L 64-71 31%    
  Feb 20, 2021 149   Texas St. L 64-71 31%    
  Feb 26, 2021 197   @ Texas Arlington L 72-79 25%    
  Feb 27, 2021 197   @ Texas Arlington L 72-79 25%    
Projected Record 5 - 15 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 3rd
4th 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.3 0.3 5.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 4.6 2.1 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.8 8.8 4.5 0.3 18.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 7.6 11.8 6.3 0.9 28.3 10th
11th 1.0 5.2 8.7 4.2 1.0 20.1 11th
12th 3.9 4.8 2.9 0.5 12.1 12th
Total 5.1 11.5 19.9 20.6 18.5 11.9 7.3 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 14.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.5% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.6% 1.6
9-9 2.9% 2.9
8-10 7.3% 7.3
7-11 11.9% 11.9
6-12 18.5% 18.5
5-13 20.6% 20.6
4-14 19.9% 19.9
3-15 11.5% 11.5
2-16 5.1% 5.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.1%