Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#185
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#175
Pace69.1#204
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#147
First Shot-3.1#253
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#19
Layup/Dunks-1.5#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#272
Freethrows-0.9#229
Improvement-0.4#209

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#250
First Shot-3.8#293
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#107
Layups/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#215
Freethrows-1.7#274
Improvement+0.6#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.0% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 87.9% 91.3% 69.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 87.2% 59.2%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
First Round6.6% 7.3% 3.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 43 - 5
Quad 412 - 414 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 260   Nebraska Omaha W 72-66 65%     1 - 0 +0.0 -10.6 +9.9
  Nov 26, 2020 145   East Tennessee St. W 67-66 39%     2 - 0 +2.0 -2.6 +4.6
  Nov 27, 2020 119   Abilene Christian L 72-80 29%     2 - 1 -4.3 -0.3 -3.3
  Dec 08, 2020 156   @ Murray St. L 57-87 35%     2 - 2 0 - 1 -28.0 -9.0 -21.3
  Dec 15, 2020 285   Florida A&M L 70-76 76%     2 - 3 -15.3 -6.5 -8.8
  Dec 21, 2020 156   Murray St. W 74-70 48%     3 - 3 1 - 1 +2.5 +5.0 -2.4
  Dec 30, 2020 290   @ Tennessee St. W 68-59 65%     4 - 3 2 - 1 +2.9 -1.5 +4.8
  Jan 02, 2021 163   Eastern Kentucky L 75-80 49%     4 - 4 2 - 2 -6.7 -3.7 -2.6
  Jan 09, 2021 236   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-71 54%     5 - 4 3 - 2 +0.1 -2.7 +2.7
  Jan 21, 2021 309   Tennessee Tech W 77-68 84%    
  Jan 23, 2021 205   Jacksonville St. W 71-68 64%    
  Jan 28, 2021 98   Belmont L 75-80 35%    
  Jan 30, 2021 290   Tennessee St. W 73-65 79%    
  Feb 04, 2021 163   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-79 32%    
  Feb 06, 2021 195   @ Morehead St. L 66-67 42%    
  Feb 11, 2021 338   Tennessee Martin W 82-68 92%    
  Feb 13, 2021 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-66 83%    
  Feb 16, 2021 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-68 66%    
  Feb 18, 2021 305   SIU Edwardsville W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 20, 2021 236   Eastern Illinois W 76-72 70%    
  Feb 25, 2021 309   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 27, 2021 205   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-70 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.0 3.0 0.5 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.0 7.9 3.7 0.6 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 7.6 10.1 4.7 0.7 0.0 24.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 7.0 8.7 3.3 0.3 21.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.9 5.1 1.6 0.1 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.8 9.2 14.4 19.1 19.2 16.1 9.5 3.9 0.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 28.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 6.4% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
14-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.8% 36.6% 36.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 3.9% 27.8% 27.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.8
14-6 9.5% 19.1% 19.1% 14.9 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 7.7
13-7 16.1% 10.7% 10.7% 15.3 0.2 0.8 0.7 14.4
12-8 19.2% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 18.0
11-9 19.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 18.5
10-10 14.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 14.0
9-11 9.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.0
8-12 4.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.8
7-13 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.9 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.3 7.1 58.9 30.4 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%