Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#146
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#174
Pace72.6#99
Improvement+1.0#112

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#169
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#127
Layup/Dunks-3.6#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#124
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement-0.9#233

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#151
First Shot+3.6#71
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#327
Layups/Dunks+2.2#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#64
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement+1.9#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.8% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 51.0% 73.6% 42.3%
.500 or above in Conference 44.9% 69.0% 35.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round3.9% 5.7% 3.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 27.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 54 - 11
Quad 49 - 212 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 215   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-74 62%     0 - 1 -3.1 +2.4 -5.6
  Dec 02, 2020 3   @ Michigan L 65-84 4%     0 - 2 +1.6 -0.8 +3.2
  Dec 05, 2020 227   Illinois-Chicago W 68-66 74%     1 - 2 -4.0 -4.9 +1.0
  Dec 08, 2020 295   @ Northern Illinois W 79-70 OT 77%     2 - 2 1 - 0 +2.2 +4.7 -2.5
  Dec 12, 2020 225   Illinois St. W 82-66 74%     3 - 2 +10.1 -0.9 +9.5
  Dec 19, 2020 129   @ Indiana St. L 57-67 37%     3 - 3 -5.6 -18.6 +14.0
  Dec 22, 2020 279   @ Western Michigan W 76-68 73%     4 - 3 2 - 0 +2.5 +3.8 -1.0
  Jan 02, 2021 117   Ohio L 68-78 46%     4 - 4 2 - 1 -8.1 -2.0 -7.0
  Jan 09, 2021 105   @ Buffalo L 69-86 30%     4 - 5 2 - 2 -10.7 -10.6 +2.1
  Jan 12, 2021 136   @ Bowling Green W 88-64 38%     5 - 5 3 - 2 +28.1 +10.9 +15.8
  Jan 16, 2021 295   Northern Illinois W 78-58 85%     6 - 5 4 - 2 +9.9 +4.6 +6.1
  Jan 19, 2021 168   @ Miami (OH) L 71-81 50%     6 - 6 4 - 3 -9.1 -3.5 -5.7
  Jan 23, 2021 117   @ Ohio L 77-85 34%     6 - 7 4 - 4 -2.8 -2.7 +0.6
  Jan 30, 2021 113   @ Akron L 71-76 28%    
  Feb 02, 2021 105   Buffalo L 78-80 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 75   Toledo L 73-78 37%    
  Feb 09, 2021 244   @ Central Michigan W 81-76 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 272   @ Eastern Michigan W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 16, 2021 136   Bowling Green W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 20, 2021 113   Akron L 72-74 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 244   Central Michigan W 83-75 80%    
  Mar 02, 2021 272   Eastern Michigan W 75-66 83%    
  Mar 05, 2021 75   @ Toledo L 72-80 19%    
Projected Record 11 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.2 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.8 7.0 1.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 9.1 4.4 0.1 16.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.2 10.6 7.3 0.6 0.0 22.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.1 11.5 8.8 1.3 0.0 27.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.1 3.9 9.9 17.5 22.7 20.7 14.8 7.0 2.0 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 34.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.3% 20.7% 20.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 2.0% 12.9% 12.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-8 7.0% 10.5% 10.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.3
11-9 14.8% 6.6% 6.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 13.8
10-10 20.7% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 19.9
9-11 22.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 22.0
8-12 17.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.1 0.3 17.1
7-13 9.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-14 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-15 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.7 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 2.9 10.3 44.1 42.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%