Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#36
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#8
Pace70.7#161
Improvement-2.1#282

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#43
First Shot+4.1#70
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#60
Layup/Dunks+4.8#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#241
Freethrows+1.8#65
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#45
First Shot+2.3#95
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#14
Layups/Dunks+1.0#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#64
Freethrows-1.2#258
Improvement-2.1#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 2.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 16.0% 16.7% 3.8%
Top 6 Seed 39.6% 40.7% 18.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.4% 90.8% 84.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.2% 86.5% 79.6%
Average Seed 8.7 7.1 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 83.2% 97.7%
Conference Champion 68.1% 69.0% 52.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.6% 4.3% 11.2%
First Round87.7% 88.3% 76.5%
Second Round48.0% 48.6% 37.7%
Sweet Sixteen17.9% 18.4% 9.1%
Elite Eight5.9% 6.0% 3.0%
Final Four2.3% 2.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 23 - 16 - 5
Quad 36 - 111 - 6
Quad 412 - 023 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 5   @ Houston L 58-68 23%     0 - 1 +9.6 -4.1 +13.8
  Nov 29, 2020 175   Sam Houston St. W 86-55 88%     1 - 1 +29.8 +8.8 +19.6
  Dec 09, 2020 37   @ BYU W 74-70 43%     2 - 1 +17.5 +6.4 +11.0
  Dec 13, 2020 174   Weber St. W 70-59 91%     3 - 1 +8.2 -4.1 +12.4
  Dec 21, 2020 243   New Mexico W 77-53 95%     4 - 1 1 - 0 +17.0 +5.9 +12.4
  Dec 23, 2020 243   New Mexico W 89-52 95%     5 - 1 2 - 0 +30.0 +12.8 +16.9
  Dec 31, 2020 324   San Jose St. W 106-54 97%     6 - 1 3 - 0 +40.4 +9.3 +23.3
  Jan 02, 2021 324   San Jose St. W 87-86 97%     7 - 1 4 - 0 -10.6 +1.7 -12.4
  Jan 06, 2021 268   Air Force W 78-59 96%     8 - 1 5 - 0 +10.8 +1.4 +9.7
  Jan 08, 2021 268   Air Force W 80-69 96%     9 - 1 6 - 0 +2.8 +14.8 -10.3
  Jan 11, 2021 181   @ Wyoming W 83-60 86%     10 - 1 7 - 0 +22.9 +12.4 +12.0
  Jan 13, 2021 181   @ Wyoming W 90-70 86%     11 - 1 8 - 0 +19.9 +9.3 +9.6
  Jan 20, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 73-51 92%     12 - 1 9 - 0 +18.2 +1.6 +17.5
  Jan 21, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 76-60 95%    
  Jan 22, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 76-60 94%    
  Jan 23, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 76-60 94%    
  Jan 28, 2021 74   @ Colorado St. W 74-71 55%    
  Jan 30, 2021 74   @ Colorado St. W 74-71 56%    
  Feb 05, 2021 99   @ Nevada W 77-72 64%    
  Feb 07, 2021 99   @ Nevada W 77-72 64%    
  Feb 11, 2021 117   UNLV W 76-66 84%    
  Feb 13, 2021 117   UNLV W 76-66 84%    
  Feb 17, 2021 35   Utah St. W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 19, 2021 35   Utah St. W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 20, 2021 35   Utah St. W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 25, 2021 44   @ San Diego St. L 66-67 41%    
  Feb 27, 2021 44   @ San Diego St. L 66-67 40%    
Projected Record 22 - 5 19 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.7 12.1 18.7 15.9 52.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 6.5 9.0 6.5 1.3 0.1 25.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.3 8.8 13.7 18.7 20.0 16.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 99.5% 15.9    15.5 0.4
19-1 93.6% 18.7    14.7 4.0
18-2 65.1% 12.1    7.3 4.7 0.2
17-3 33.9% 4.7    1.7 2.5 0.5 0.0
16-4 7.9% 0.7    0.0 0.5 0.2
15-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 52.1% 52.1 39.2 12.0 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 16.0% 99.0% 38.1% 61.0% 5.5 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.5 4.3 2.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 98.5%
19-1 20.0% 98.6% 33.8% 64.8% 7.0 0.0 0.8 2.7 5.0 4.2 3.1 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.9%
18-2 18.7% 93.8% 28.9% 65.0% 8.2 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.4 4.1 4.1 2.4 0.9 0.3 1.2 91.3%
17-3 13.7% 89.5% 27.5% 62.0% 9.5 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.0 2.4 1.0 1.4 85.5%
16-4 8.8% 74.3% 19.8% 54.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.1 2.3 67.9%
15-5 4.3% 46.4% 11.9% 34.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 2.3 39.1%
14-6 1.8% 29.4% 6.3% 23.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 24.6%
13-7 0.5% 7.2% 0.2% 7.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.0%
12-8 0.2% 0.2
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 74.4% 24.4% 50.1% 7.8 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.7 11.3 11.0 9.8 10.6 8.0 7.0 3.9 0.3 25.6 66.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.6 44.8 54.7 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 2.0 29.1 42.5 28.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 64.4 1.7 33.1 0.8