Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#131
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#112
Pace72.6#101
Improvement-3.3#323

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#108
First Shot+0.5#168
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#59
Layup/Dunks-1.8#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#156
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement-3.3#332

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot-1.0#193
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#119
Layups/Dunks-1.0#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#230
Freethrows+1.0#122
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 9.6% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 94.2% 98.7% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 93.2% 70.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.3% 9.5% 5.6%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 35 - 47 - 9
Quad 48 - 115 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 3   @ Michigan L 82-96 5%     0 - 1 +6.8 +14.9 -7.4
  Nov 28, 2020 345   South Carolina St. W 101-78 98%     1 - 1 +1.6 +1.6 -3.9
  Nov 30, 2020 171   @ Appalachian St. W 78-76 OT 55%     2 - 1 +3.2 -3.7 +6.7
  Dec 06, 2020 106   Buffalo W 86-78 48%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +10.8 +6.3 +3.8
  Dec 13, 2020 65   Wright St. L 67-85 34%     3 - 2 -11.3 -6.8 -3.2
  Dec 18, 2020 261   @ Robert Morris W 85-65 74%     4 - 2 +15.7 +10.3 +6.0
  Dec 30, 2020 124   @ Ohio W 83-75 41%     5 - 2 2 - 0 +12.8 +10.7 +2.3
  Jan 02, 2021 299   @ Northern Illinois W 68-42 81%     6 - 2 3 - 0 +19.3 -2.2 +23.3
  Jan 05, 2021 245   Central Michigan W 90-69 82%     7 - 2 4 - 0 +13.8 +6.0 +6.6
  Jan 09, 2021 245   @ Central Michigan W 93-65 71%     8 - 2 5 - 0 +24.6 +9.1 +13.3
  Jan 12, 2021 148   Ball St. L 64-88 63%     8 - 3 5 - 1 -24.9 -12.5 -11.1
  Jan 15, 2021 106   @ Buffalo W 76-69 34%     9 - 3 6 - 1 +13.5 +0.3 +12.7
  Jan 19, 2021 118   Akron L 57-69 52%     9 - 4 6 - 2 -10.2 -15.9 +5.7
  Jan 21, 2021 166   @ Miami (OH) L 77-96 54%     9 - 5 6 - 3 -17.6 +4.6 -22.7
  Jan 30, 2021 74   Toledo L 75-78 42%    
  Feb 02, 2021 264   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-68 70%    
  Feb 06, 2021 269   Western Michigan W 76-65 88%    
  Feb 09, 2021 96   Kent St. L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 13, 2021 74   @ Toledo L 73-80 22%    
  Feb 16, 2021 148   @ Ball St. L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 20, 2021 124   Ohio W 78-77 59%    
  Feb 27, 2021 118   @ Akron L 73-76 35%    
  Mar 02, 2021 166   Miami (OH) W 76-71 71%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.2 5.7 1.9 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.3 9.9 3.5 0.2 18.0 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 11.9 5.8 0.2 0.0 21.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 9.5 7.6 0.7 19.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 5.5 7.0 0.9 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.0 1.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.4 13.0 21.3 25.0 20.6 9.9 3.0 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 78.7% 0.4    0.2 0.1
14-6 29.5% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.5% 27.7% 25.5% 2.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9%
14-6 3.0% 19.5% 19.1% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.4 0.4%
13-7 9.9% 12.7% 12.7% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 8.6
12-8 20.6% 10.3% 10.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 18.4
11-9 25.0% 6.9% 6.9% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 23.3
10-10 21.3% 4.5% 4.5% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 20.4
9-11 13.0% 3.2% 3.2% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 12.6
8-12 5.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.1 0.0 5.3
7-13 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.5 25.0 16.7 37.5 20.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 5.6% 12.0 5.6