Cal St. Bakersfield
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#149
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#123
Pace62.7#327
Improvement+3.4#31

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#196
First Shot-5.4#300
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#11
Layup/Dunks-0.6#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#339
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement+1.1#89

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#124
First Shot+2.1#106
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#192
Layups/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#168
Freethrows-1.8#284
Improvement+2.2#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 13.4
.500 or above 92.0% 98.1% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 32 - 15 - 7
Quad 49 - 214 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 164   @ Santa Clara L 47-53 47%     0 - 1 -4.4 -19.2 +14.6
  Dec 09, 2020 31   @ Arizona L 60-85 11%     0 - 2 -10.8 -3.8 -8.7
  Dec 12, 2020 337   Idaho W 76-66 93%     1 - 2 -5.6 -1.2 -3.9
  Dec 21, 2020 49   @ Stanford L 50-63 14%     1 - 3 -0.5 -15.1 +14.7
  Dec 23, 2020 131   @ Pepperdine W 79-51 37%     2 - 3 +32.3 +16.3 +19.3
  Jan 01, 2021 270   @ Long Beach St. L 89-90 OT 72%     2 - 4 -5.9 -1.7 -4.1
  Jan 02, 2021 270   @ Long Beach St. W 89-76 72%     3 - 4 +8.1 +12.3 -4.2
  Jan 08, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 62-49 93%     4 - 4 -2.2 -7.6 +7.6
  Jan 09, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 67-50 93%     5 - 4 +1.8 -6.9 +10.2
  Jan 15, 2021 186   @ Hawaii W 60-55 55%     6 - 4 +4.6 -13.9 +18.5
  Jan 16, 2021 186   @ Hawaii W 83-72 55%     7 - 4 +10.6 +11.0 -0.1
  Jan 22, 2021 126   @ UC Riverside L 59-63 32%    
  Jan 23, 2021 126   @ UC Riverside L 59-63 33%    
  Jan 29, 2021 271   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-61 84%    
  Jan 30, 2021 271   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-61 84%    
  Feb 05, 2021 116   @ UC Irvine L 62-67 30%    
  Feb 06, 2021 116   @ UC Irvine L 62-67 30%    
  Feb 12, 2021 295   UC San Diego W 65-54 86%    
  Feb 13, 2021 295   UC San Diego W 65-54 86%    
  Feb 19, 2021 123   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-67 32%    
  Feb 20, 2021 123   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-67 32%    
  Feb 26, 2021 264   Cal St. Northridge W 75-66 82%    
  Feb 27, 2021 264   Cal St. Northridge W 75-66 82%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 0 - 0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 24.6 24.6 8th
9th 75.0 75.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16 100.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%
Total 100% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 48.2% 11.9 0.9 6.4 37.3 3.6