Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#288
Expected Predictive Rating-11.1#302
Pace71.2#143
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#323
First Shot-4.0#273
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#304
Layup/Dunks+1.7#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#319
Freethrows-1.7#276
Improvement-0.5#227

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#191
First Shot+2.4#97
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#331
Layups/Dunks-7.4#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#227
Freethrows+5.4#3
Improvement+0.5#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 7.5% 15.8% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.6% 14.5% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.2% 12.9% 34.8%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round1.0% 1.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 44 - 45 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 01, 2021 136   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-81 15%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -14.6 -10.0 -4.4
  Jan 02, 2021 136   @ UC Santa Barbara L 61-65 15%     0 - 2 0 - 2 -0.6 -11.0 +10.4
  Jan 08, 2021 276   Long Beach St. L 80-82 54%     0 - 3 0 - 3 -10.8 -9.0 -1.6
  Jan 09, 2021 276   Long Beach St. W 75-72 OT 54%     1 - 3 1 - 3 -5.8 -15.7 +9.4
  Jan 22, 2021 167   Hawaii L 68-74 35%    
  Jan 23, 2021 167   Hawaii L 68-74 36%    
  Jan 29, 2021 164   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 59-68 16%    
  Jan 30, 2021 164   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 59-68 17%    
  Feb 05, 2021 144   UC Riverside L 59-67 29%    
  Feb 06, 2021 144   UC Riverside L 59-67 29%    
  Feb 12, 2021 324   @ Cal Poly W 68-66 53%    
  Feb 13, 2021 324   @ Cal Poly W 68-66 53%    
  Feb 19, 2021 116   UC Irvine L 62-72 23%    
  Feb 20, 2021 116   UC Irvine L 62-72 22%    
  Mar 05, 2021 250   @ UC San Diego L 60-64 33%    
  Mar 06, 2021 250   @ UC San Diego L 60-64 33%    
Projected Record 5 - 11 4 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.1 2.1 0.2 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.4 8.3 3.8 0.3 17.3 7th
8th 0.4 4.4 9.6 4.8 0.5 0.0 19.8 8th
9th 0.3 4.3 9.6 4.9 0.7 0.0 19.7 9th
10th 4.2 6.8 3.7 0.4 0.0 15.1 10th
Total 4.5 11.5 18.3 19.7 17.6 13.7 8.1 4.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 41.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 11.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.1% 0.1
10-6 0.6% 10.9% 10.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-7 1.6% 8.3% 8.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
8-8 4.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.1
7-9 8.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.9
6-10 13.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.4
5-11 17.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.5
4-12 19.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.6
3-13 18.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.3
2-14 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
1-15 4.5% 4.5
0-16
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 3.7%