Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#260
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#156
Pace73.7#77
Improvement-1.0#245

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#209
First Shot-1.5#211
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#176
Layup/Dunks-3.0#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#169
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-0.5#220

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#299
First Shot-3.0#271
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#267
Layups/Dunks-0.8#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#180
Freethrows-3.7#327
Improvement-0.5#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 27.5% 41.0% 17.2%
.500 or above in Conference 16.7% 27.3% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.8% 8.6% 24.9%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round1.8% 2.5% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 64 - 8
Quad 45 - 59 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 253   Air Force L 61-66 49%     0 - 1 -10.7 -10.3 -0.8
  Nov 30, 2020 256   Seattle W 76-65 50%     1 - 1 +5.2 -1.1 +5.9
  Dec 12, 2020 154   @ Pepperdine W 89-84 22%     2 - 1 +7.2 +8.4 -1.6
  Dec 15, 2020 52   Stanford L 71-82 9%     2 - 2 -1.9 +4.6 -6.5
  Dec 19, 2020 151   @ California L 56-87 22%     2 - 3 -28.6 -18.1 -9.8
  Dec 28, 2020 117   New Mexico St. W 66-63 22%     3 - 3 +5.1 -9.6 +14.5
  Jan 15, 2021 276   @ Long Beach St. L 82-83 44%    
  Jan 16, 2021 276   @ Long Beach St. L 82-83 44%    
  Jan 22, 2021 136   UC Santa Barbara L 70-76 33%    
  Jan 23, 2021 136   UC Santa Barbara L 70-76 34%    
  Jan 29, 2021 324   @ Cal Poly W 75-71 60%    
  Jan 30, 2021 324   @ Cal Poly W 75-71 60%    
  Feb 05, 2021 198   UC Davis L 77-79 50%    
  Feb 06, 2021 198   UC Davis L 77-79 50%    
  Feb 12, 2021 142   @ Grand Canyon L 68-77 17%    
  Feb 19, 2021 167   Hawaii L 75-79 41%    
  Feb 20, 2021 167   Hawaii L 75-79 41%    
  Feb 26, 2021 164   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 65-72 22%    
  Feb 27, 2021 164   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 65-72 22%    
  Mar 05, 2021 144   UC Riverside L 65-71 35%    
  Mar 06, 2021 144   UC Riverside L 65-71 36%    
Projected Record 9 - 12 5 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.1 1.2 0.1 8.7 4th
5th 0.3 3.6 6.3 2.0 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.3 3.9 7.3 3.0 0.2 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.7 8.3 3.6 0.2 16.3 7th
8th 0.5 3.4 7.8 4.2 0.4 16.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.6 3.5 0.5 13.1 9th
10th 0.7 2.7 3.5 2.0 0.3 9.2 10th
Total 0.7 3.1 7.2 11.4 15.6 17.1 15.3 12.8 8.4 5.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 52.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-5 29.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 22.9% 22.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.8% 16.7% 16.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-6 2.3% 10.5% 10.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
9-7 5.1% 6.8% 6.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.8
8-8 8.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.0
7-9 12.8% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 12.4
6-10 15.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 15.0
5-11 17.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 16.9
4-12 15.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.6
3-13 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.4
2-14 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
1-15 3.1% 3.1
0-16 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%