California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#275
Expected Predictive Rating-11.1#310
Pace69.9#179
Improvement-2.1#282

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#184
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks+1.6#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#41
Freethrows-1.8#284
Improvement-2.0#294

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#325
First Shot-5.2#315
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#277
Layups/Dunks-2.7#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#210
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 34.8% 47.8% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 22.4% 26.6% 16.3%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.0% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 31 - 6
Quad 47 - 48 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 24   @ USC L 87-95 OT 3%     0 - 1 +7.3 +13.2 -5.0
  Dec 02, 2020 323   SE Louisiana L 80-81 72%     0 - 2 -14.3 -6.5 -7.8
  Dec 04, 2020 323   SE Louisiana W 83-66 72%     1 - 2 +3.7 -5.7 +7.6
  Jan 08, 2021 234   @ Utah Valley L 50-77 34%     1 - 3 0 - 1 -29.9 -21.9 -9.1
  Jan 09, 2021 234   @ Utah Valley L 77-81 34%     1 - 4 0 - 2 -6.9 +2.0 -8.8
  Jan 15, 2021 327   Tarleton St. W 83-74 75%     2 - 4 1 - 2 -5.2 +1.4 -6.7
  Jan 16, 2021 327   Tarleton St. W 73-67 75%     3 - 4 2 - 2 -8.2 -5.0 -3.0
  Jan 23, 2021 271   Long Beach St. W 82-81 59%    
  Jan 29, 2021 331   Dixie St. W 76-69 79%    
  Jan 30, 2021 331   Dixie St. W 76-69 79%    
  Feb 05, 2021 119   @ New Mexico St. L 63-76 11%    
  Feb 06, 2021 119   @ New Mexico St. L 63-76 12%    
  Feb 12, 2021 210   UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-75 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 210   UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-75 47%    
  Feb 19, 2021 158   @ Grand Canyon L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 20, 2021 158   @ Grand Canyon L 68-78 17%    
  Mar 05, 2021 262   Seattle W 75-74 57%    
  Mar 06, 2021 262   Seattle W 75-74 57%    
Projected Record 8 - 10 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.6 3.3 4.2 1.0 0.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 1.3 6.4 7.1 1.0 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 8.8 9.9 2.3 22.3 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 12.5 13.8 3.3 32.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 6.4 4.3 0.5 13.5 6th
7th 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.4 3.8 10.7 18.1 24.4 20.2 13.0 6.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 75.9% 0.3    0.3
10-6 56.3% 1.3    0.5 0.7 0.2
9-7 21.0% 1.4    0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1
8-8 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.4% 0.4
10-6 2.3% 2.3
9-7 6.6% 6.6
8-8 13.0% 13.0
7-9 20.2% 20.2
6-10 24.4% 24.4
5-11 18.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.1
4-12 10.7% 10.7
3-13 3.8% 3.8
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%