Central Arkansas
Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#295
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#296
Pace79.7#16
Improvement-2.9#310

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#214
First Shot-2.8#253
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#122
Layup/Dunks-0.2#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#311
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement-0.3#187

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#326
First Shot-6.3#326
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#195
Layups/Dunks-1.0#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#345
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement-2.6#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 37.3% 12.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.0% 6.6%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Away) - 52.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 41 - 12
Quad 46 - 57 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 04, 2020 63   @ Memphis L 68-85 5%     0 - 1 -5.9 -9.3 +7.0
  Dec 06, 2020 154   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 83-86 16%     0 - 2 -0.7 +0.5 -0.9
  Dec 08, 2020 33   @ Saint Louis L 65-88 3%     0 - 3 -9.2 -6.8 -0.6
  Dec 12, 2020 39   @ Arkansas L 75-100 3%     0 - 4 -11.5 -0.3 -8.2
  Dec 14, 2020 62   @ Mississippi L 54-68 5%     0 - 5 -2.8 -12.8 +10.4
  Dec 16, 2020 76   @ Mississippi St. L 65-81 6%     0 - 6 -6.8 -1.7 -5.8
  Dec 29, 2020 2   @ Baylor L 56-93 1%     0 - 7 -12.0 -11.9 +4.1
  Jan 02, 2021 339   @ McNeese St. W 81-67 65%     1 - 7 1 - 0 +1.7 -8.1 +8.7
  Jan 06, 2021 300   New Orleans W 83-79 59%     2 - 7 2 - 0 -6.6 +1.8 -8.5
  Jan 09, 2021 181   Sam Houston St. L 80-91 31%     2 - 8 2 - 1 -14.1 -1.4 -11.8
  Jan 13, 2021 139   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-95 13%     2 - 9 2 - 2 -22.4 -5.2 -16.3
  Jan 16, 2021 186   Nicholls St. L 72-74 33%     2 - 10 2 - 3 -5.7 -2.6 -3.2
  Jan 23, 2021 115   @ Abilene Christian L 58-93 10%     2 - 11 2 - 4 -29.3 -11.7 -14.8
  Jan 27, 2021 325   @ SE Louisiana W 81-79 53%    
  Jan 30, 2021 314   Northwestern St. W 84-80 68%    
  Feb 06, 2021 339   McNeese St. W 87-79 80%    
  Feb 10, 2021 300   @ New Orleans L 81-82 40%    
  Feb 13, 2021 181   @ Sam Houston St. L 77-86 18%    
  Feb 17, 2021 139   Stephen F. Austin L 79-87 25%    
  Feb 20, 2021 186   @ Nicholls St. L 76-84 20%    
  Feb 27, 2021 115   Abilene Christian L 67-77 20%    
  Mar 03, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 83-77 73%    
  Mar 06, 2021 314   @ Northwestern St. W 83-82 47%    
Projected Record 6 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.1 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.4 6.0 7.5 2.1 0.1 16.0 6th
7th 0.1 4.7 10.3 3.1 0.3 18.4 7th
8th 1.3 10.2 4.6 0.3 16.3 8th
9th 0.2 6.5 7.4 0.5 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 6.7 1.4 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.0 2.1 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.2 3.4 12th
13th 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 13th
Total 0.4 2.6 8.2 16.9 24.0 22.4 15.1 7.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.2
9-7 7.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.5
8-8 15.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.9
7-9 22.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.3
6-10 24.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.0
5-11 16.9% 16.9
4-12 8.2% 8.2
3-13 2.6% 2.6
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%