Central Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#90
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#73
Pace67.7#235
Improvement-2.7#309

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#132
First Shot+2.5#108
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#226
Layup/Dunks+1.4#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
Freethrows+1.3#98
Improvement-0.4#201

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#64
First Shot+4.0#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#161
Layups/Dunks+1.0#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#217
Freethrows+1.2#113
Improvement-2.3#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 15.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.6% 12.1% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.0 10.7 11.9
.500 or above 39.9% 54.1% 27.0%
.500 or above in Conference 19.9% 31.1% 9.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 2.1% 8.8%
First Four3.3% 5.5% 1.3%
First Round7.9% 12.6% 3.6%
Second Round2.5% 4.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 45 - 9
Quad 35 - 310 - 12
Quad 41 - 010 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 30, 2020 64   Auburn W 63-55 46%     1 - 0 +14.9 -11.4 +25.7
  Dec 06, 2020 4   @ Michigan L 58-80 10%     1 - 1 -2.1 -1.2 -2.7
  Dec 19, 2020 15   @ Florida St. W 86-74 14%     2 - 1 +29.3 +20.1 +9.3
  Dec 22, 2020 83   Cincinnati W 75-70 54%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +9.9 +4.9 +4.9
  Dec 26, 2020 5   Houston L 54-63 17%     3 - 2 1 - 1 +7.0 -4.1 +10.1
  Jan 02, 2021 98   @ South Florida L 61-68 47%     3 - 3 1 - 2 -0.3 -2.8 +2.1
  Jan 14, 2021 133   @ Temple L 55-62 56%     3 - 4 1 - 3 -2.6 -9.5 +6.3
  Jan 17, 2021 5   @ Houston L 58-75 11%     3 - 5 1 - 4 +2.6 +0.7 +0.5
  Jan 23, 2021 62   SMU L 70-72 48%    
  Jan 27, 2021 142   East Carolina W 69-63 76%    
  Jan 30, 2021 60   @ Wichita St. L 67-73 26%    
  Feb 01, 2021 69   Memphis L 68-69 54%    
  Feb 03, 2021 69   @ Memphis L 67-71 32%    
  Feb 06, 2021 86   Tulsa W 64-63 58%    
  Feb 10, 2021 60   Wichita St. L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 14, 2021 83   @ Cincinnati L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 17, 2021 98   South Florida W 66-63 63%    
  Feb 20, 2021 184   @ Tulane W 68-62 67%    
  Feb 23, 2021 62   @ SMU L 69-74 26%    
  Feb 27, 2021 133   Temple W 70-65 72%    
  Mar 04, 2021 142   @ East Carolina W 68-65 57%    
Projected Record 10 - 11 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.0 2.4 0.5 8.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 7.0 4.0 0.3 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.5 3.2 8.4 5.8 0.7 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 7.9 4.8 0.8 16.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 6.8 4.2 0.8 14.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.6 9.0 13.5 16.3 16.7 15.8 10.1 5.7 3.1 0.9 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 39.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-7 4.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.9% 95.3% 9.4% 85.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 94.8%
12-8 3.1% 74.6% 10.1% 64.5% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.8 71.7%
11-9 5.7% 46.5% 12.8% 33.7% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.1 3.0 38.6%
10-10 10.1% 19.2% 5.7% 13.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 8.2 14.2%
9-11 15.8% 5.5% 3.2% 2.2% 12.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 14.9 2.3%
8-12 16.7% 2.8% 2.8% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 16.3
7-13 16.3% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.2
6-14 13.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.1 0.0 13.4
5-15 9.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.9
4-16 5.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.5
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 9.6% 3.2% 6.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 90.4 6.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 33.3 66.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 6.5 50.0 50.0
Lose Out 0.0%