Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#233
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#222
Pace80.3#16
Improvement+1.5#84

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#174
First Shot-0.2#179
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#171
Layup/Dunks+1.7#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#294
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement+0.0#172

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#295
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#302
Layups/Dunks-0.9#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#237
Freethrows-0.3#192
Improvement+1.5#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.0 15.7
.500 or above 6.1% 21.1% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 11.7% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 3.1% 13.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 8.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 31 - 52 - 12
Quad 46 - 38 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 210   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-74 38%     0 - 1 -3.6 -5.4 +1.9
  Dec 01, 2020 212   @ Florida International L 76-96 39%     0 - 2 -21.7 -5.7 -14.4
  Dec 06, 2020 319   @ Western Illinois W 79-73 67%     1 - 2 -3.1 -6.1 +2.5
  Dec 12, 2020 196   Valparaiso W 84-79 49%     2 - 2 +0.6 +6.4 -6.0
  Dec 18, 2020 262   @ Western Michigan L 61-76 50%     2 - 3 0 - 1 -19.6 -10.2 -10.1
  Dec 29, 2020 259   @ Eastern Michigan W 87-60 49%     3 - 3 1 - 1 +22.7 +12.1 +10.4
  Jan 05, 2021 101   @ Bowling Green L 69-90 15%     3 - 4 1 - 2 -14.5 -6.2 -6.9
  Jan 09, 2021 101   Bowling Green L 65-93 23%     3 - 5 1 - 3 -25.0 -12.8 -9.9
  Jan 12, 2021 97   Kent St. L 85-94 22%     3 - 6 1 - 4 -5.6 +1.5 -6.0
  Jan 16, 2021 259   Eastern Michigan W 75-64 62%     4 - 6 2 - 4 +3.2 -5.6 +8.1
  Jan 19, 2021 77   @ Toledo L 75-88 8%    
  Jan 26, 2021 104   @ Buffalo L 80-91 13%    
  Jan 30, 2021 97   @ Kent St. L 76-88 12%    
  Feb 02, 2021 130   Ohio L 79-84 35%    
  Feb 06, 2021 300   @ Northern Illinois W 74-72 53%    
  Feb 09, 2021 134   Ball St. L 76-81 37%    
  Feb 13, 2021 104   Buffalo L 82-89 29%    
  Feb 16, 2021 130   @ Ohio L 77-86 18%    
  Feb 20, 2021 262   Western Michigan W 76-73 67%    
  Feb 27, 2021 134   @ Ball St. L 75-83 19%    
  Mar 02, 2021 77   Toledo L 77-87 21%    
  Mar 05, 2021 300   Northern Illinois W 76-70 73%    
Projected Record 8 - 14 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.5 1.7 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 8.3 10.0 4.2 0.4 25.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 9.2 10.1 3.4 0.4 24.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 6.5 8.2 2.8 0.3 18.5 10th
11th 0.3 3.3 5.9 1.9 0.2 11.6 11th
12th 1.2 2.5 1.0 0.1 4.8 12th
Total 1.5 6.5 14.9 21.4 21.9 16.6 10.2 4.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.6% 8.3% 8.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-10 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-11 4.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
8-12 10.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 16.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.5
6-14 21.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.9
5-15 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
4-16 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%