Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#189
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#82
Pace67.2#246
Improvement+2.5#49

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#269
First Shot-6.3#318
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#45
Layup/Dunks-2.1#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#222
Freethrows-0.6#214
Improvement+1.6#75

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#137
First Shot+3.5#72
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#306
Layups/Dunks+4.7#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#132
Freethrows-3.0#316
Improvement+0.9#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 10.4% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 97.6% 99.4% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.8% 97.5%
Conference Champion 32.2% 40.6% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round9.5% 10.3% 8.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 15 - 6
Quad 411 - 316 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 77   @ Toledo L 61-70 15%     0 - 1 -0.1 -8.6 +8.1
  Dec 06, 2020 130   @ Ohio L 46-101 27%     0 - 2 -50.8 -33.0 -12.6
  Dec 13, 2020 18   @ Ohio St. L 61-67 5%     0 - 3 +10.6 -2.5 +12.7
  Dec 19, 2020 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 63-61 44%     1 - 3 +1.3 -13.1 +14.4
  Dec 20, 2020 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 89-80 44%     2 - 3 +8.3 +16.4 -7.8
  Dec 26, 2020 268   Youngstown St. W 87-69 72%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +9.7 +11.4 -0.3
  Dec 27, 2020 268   Youngstown St. W 81-74 72%     4 - 3 2 - 0 -1.3 +2.4 -3.4
  Jan 01, 2021 289   @ IUPUI W 65-62 64%     5 - 3 3 - 0 -3.1 -11.8 +8.7
  Jan 02, 2021 289   @ IUPUI W 59-49 64%     6 - 3 4 - 0 +3.9 -16.4 +20.3
  Jan 08, 2021 225   Northern Kentucky W 58-44 64%     7 - 3 5 - 0 +8.1 -8.2 +18.5
  Jan 09, 2021 225   Northern Kentucky W 74-71 OT 64%     8 - 3 6 - 0 -2.9 -3.0 +0.1
  Jan 15, 2021 79   @ Wright St. W 66-64 15%     9 - 3 7 - 0 +10.7 +7.5 +3.5
  Jan 16, 2021 79   @ Wright St. L 49-85 15%     9 - 4 7 - 1 -27.3 -23.6 +0.2
  Jan 22, 2021 209   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-65 64%    
  Jan 23, 2021 209   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-65 64%    
  Jan 29, 2021 271   Green Bay W 73-67 76%    
  Jan 30, 2021 271   Green Bay W 73-67 76%    
  Feb 05, 2021 254   @ Oakland W 71-69 52%    
  Feb 06, 2021 254   @ Oakland W 71-69 52%    
  Feb 12, 2021 222   Detroit Mercy W 71-68 67%    
  Feb 13, 2021 222   Detroit Mercy W 71-68 67%    
  Feb 19, 2021 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-73 39%    
  Feb 20, 2021 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-73 40%    
Projected Record 15 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.4 10.4 11.5 5.0 32.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.3 15.6 20.2 13.3 3.8 59.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.8 1.2 0.1 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.5 9.1 17.8 24.7 23.7 15.3 5.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 5.0    3.8 1.2
14-4 75.2% 11.5    6.4 5.0
13-5 44.0% 10.4    4.4 6.0 0.0
12-6 17.9% 4.4    1.3 2.9 0.2
11-7 5.3% 0.9    0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.2% 32.2 16.0 15.7 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 5.0% 18.0% 18.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1
14-4 15.3% 13.7% 13.7% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 13.2
13-5 23.7% 11.2% 11.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 21.0
12-6 24.7% 9.4% 9.4% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 22.4
11-7 17.8% 6.4% 6.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 16.6
10-8 9.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.7
9-9 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.4
8-10 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.4 1.1 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.6 1.9 1.9 42.3 42.3 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%