Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#146
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#150
Pace73.1#94
Improvement-0.2#187

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#96
First Shot+2.7#102
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#167
Layup/Dunks+3.4#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#196
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#224
First Shot-0.7#189
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#245
Layups/Dunks+4.8#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#319
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement-0.3#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 19.1% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 97.2% 98.4% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 94.7% 81.0%
Conference Champion 29.1% 32.5% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.9% 19.1% 3.8%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 85.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 33 - 5
Quad 411 - 213 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 07, 2020 229   NC Central W 78-71 77%     1 - 0 +0.5 -3.9 +3.9
  Dec 15, 2020 118   @ Wofford L 77-88 35%     1 - 1 -5.7 +8.2 -14.4
  Dec 17, 2020 344   Delaware St. W 99-73 97%     2 - 1 +6.0 +6.4 -2.6
  Jan 01, 2021 123   Georgia St. W 81-69 49%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +13.5 -1.0 +13.1
  Jan 02, 2021 123   Georgia St. L 62-70 49%     3 - 2 1 - 1 -6.5 -8.5 +1.7
  Jan 08, 2021 211   South Alabama W 78-65 74%     4 - 2 2 - 1 +7.5 -1.1 +8.6
  Jan 09, 2021 211   South Alabama W 83-69 74%     5 - 2 3 - 1 +8.5 +7.1 +1.9
  Jan 16, 2021 123   @ Georgia St. L 68-71 OT 35%     5 - 3 3 - 2 +2.1 -4.3 +6.5
  Jan 22, 2021 282   Troy W 90-81 84%     6 - 3 4 - 2 -0.3 +13.6 -14.0
  Jan 23, 2021 282   Troy W 78-67 86%    
  Jan 29, 2021 236   @ Georgia Southern W 75-71 60%    
  Jan 30, 2021 236   @ Georgia Southern W 75-71 60%    
  Feb 05, 2021 211   @ South Alabama W 77-74 55%    
  Feb 06, 2021 211   @ South Alabama W 77-74 58%    
  Feb 11, 2021 182   @ Appalachian St. W 73-72 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 182   Appalachian St. W 75-70 70%    
  Feb 19, 2021 236   Georgia Southern W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 20, 2021 236   Georgia Southern W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 26, 2021 282   @ Troy W 76-69 70%    
  Feb 27, 2021 282   @ Troy W 76-69 69%    
Projected Record 13 - 7 11 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.9 11.3 9.2 2.8 29.1 1st
2nd 0.4 4.6 10.6 5.3 0.5 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 7.9 3.9 0.3 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.3 4.8 0.5 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 5.0 0.8 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.9 3.9 1.7 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.2 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.3 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.4 9.1 15.4 18.9 20.0 16.9 9.7 2.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.2
14-4 94.8% 9.2    7.0 2.1 0.0
13-5 66.9% 11.3    4.4 5.3 1.3 0.3
12-6 24.5% 4.9    0.5 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.0
11-7 4.3% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
10-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 14.7 9.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.8% 94.7% 94.7% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.5 0.2
14-4 9.7% 74.3% 74.3% 13.9 0.1 2.0 3.9 1.2 2.5
13-5 16.9% 34.3% 34.3% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.2 11.1
12-6 20.0% 5.5% 5.5% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 18.8
11-7 18.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 18.8
10-8 15.4% 15.4
9-9 9.1% 9.1
8-10 4.4% 4.4
7-11 1.8% 1.8
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 4.1 7.6 4.1 0.4 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 94.7% 12.8 2.5 3.7 16.0 56.3 16.2