College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#198
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#218
Pace61.8#333
Improvement+2.6#45

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#169
First Shot+1.8#136
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#268
Layup/Dunks-3.5#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#26
Freethrows-1.1#238
Improvement+1.4#79

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#251
First Shot-2.5#254
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#190
Layups/Dunks+1.8#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#185
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#287
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement+1.2#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 11.8% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 32.5% 45.5% 21.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 83.1% 60.1%
Conference Champion 12.2% 21.9% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 4.7%
First Round7.6% 9.8% 5.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Home) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 47 - 412 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 33   @ North Carolina L 60-79 7%     0 - 1 -5.3 -7.7 +3.3
  Dec 05, 2020 80   Furman L 57-81 22%     0 - 2 -18.8 -11.9 -8.5
  Dec 09, 2020 86   Marshall L 72-84 24%     0 - 3 -7.3 +2.3 -9.8
  Dec 11, 2020 345   South Carolina St. W 90-63 95%     1 - 3 +5.8 +4.3 +0.5
  Dec 18, 2020 180   Western Carolina L 70-76 OT 52%     1 - 4 -9.3 -10.2 +1.2
  Dec 21, 2020 107   @ Georgia St. L 55-72 20%     1 - 5 -10.9 -7.0 -6.4
  Jan 02, 2021 226   @ Delaware L 67-70 49%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -5.4 -1.5 -4.2
  Jan 03, 2021 226   @ Delaware W 66-59 49%     2 - 6 1 - 1 +4.6 +1.2 +4.3
  Jan 09, 2021 161   Drexel W 61-60 46%     3 - 6 2 - 1 -0.7 -6.5 +5.9
  Jan 10, 2021 161   Drexel W 73-68 46%     4 - 6 3 - 1 +3.3 +9.9 -5.8
  Jan 16, 2021 144   Northeastern L 62-67 41%     4 - 7 3 - 2 -5.5 -3.3 -2.7
  Jan 17, 2021 144   Northeastern L 63-65 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 272   @ William & Mary W 68-66 54%    
  Jan 24, 2021 272   @ William & Mary W 68-66 54%    
  Jan 30, 2021 207   @ James Madison L 73-74 41%    
  Jan 31, 2021 207   @ James Madison L 73-74 40%    
  Feb 06, 2021 237   Towson W 69-65 68%    
  Feb 07, 2021 237   Towson W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 13, 2021 245   Elon W 68-64 69%    
  Feb 14, 2021 245   Elon W 68-64 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 171   @ Hofstra L 67-70 33%    
  Feb 21, 2021 171   @ Hofstra L 67-70 34%    
  Feb 25, 2021 191   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-69 38%    
  Feb 27, 2021 191   UNC Wilmington W 69-68 59%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.1 12.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 7.2 10.0 7.1 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 29.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 7.5 7.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.9 6.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.8 5.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.1 1.5 0.1 6.6 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 1.6 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 9.2 13.0 16.8 17.3 15.1 11.3 6.3 2.7 1.0 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 96.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 89.1% 0.9    0.7 0.1
14-4 74.3% 2.0    1.6 0.4
13-5 52.5% 3.3    2.1 1.2 0.1
12-6 31.7% 3.6    1.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 12.4% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-8 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.4 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 19.2% 19.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.0% 23.4% 23.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-4 2.7% 23.4% 23.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.1
13-5 6.3% 20.5% 20.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 5.0
12-6 11.3% 15.4% 15.4% 15.5 0.0 0.8 1.0 9.6
11-7 15.1% 13.1% 13.1% 15.8 0.5 1.5 13.1
10-8 17.3% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6 15.7
9-9 16.8% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.1 15.6
8-10 13.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.6 12.5
7-11 9.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.3 8.9
6-12 4.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.5 90.4 0.0%