Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#69
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#37
Pace71.6#130
Improvement+0.4#147

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#62
First Shot+6.7#30
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#255
Layup/Dunks+1.7#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#12
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement+3.7#21

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#97
First Shot+2.3#99
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#129
Layups/Dunks+1.5#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#217
Freethrows+4.1#5
Improvement-3.3#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 4.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 51.7% 26.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.7% 42.2% 17.4%
Average Seed 10.1 9.6 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 16.0% 29.3% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.8% 8.6% 7.2%
First Round33.8% 46.8% 22.4%
Second Round12.3% 17.9% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 4.4% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 4
Quad 21 - 14 - 5
Quad 35 - 19 - 6
Quad 410 - 019 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 14, 2020 301   Northern Arizona W 91-52 95%     1 - 0 +28.5 +11.3 +17.5
  Dec 19, 2020 76   @ St. Mary's L 33-53 46%     1 - 1 -10.9 -30.3 +17.4
  Dec 22, 2020 159   @ Santa Clara W 70-57 73%     2 - 1 +14.9 -5.0 +18.7
  Dec 28, 2020 184   Fresno St. W 75-53 86%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +18.6 +3.2 +16.1
  Dec 30, 2020 184   Fresno St. W 81-59 86%     4 - 1 2 - 0 +18.6 +2.2 +15.2
  Jan 02, 2021 33   @ San Diego St. W 70-67 29%     5 - 1 3 - 0 +16.8 +7.2 +9.7
  Jan 04, 2021 33   @ San Diego St. L 65-78 29%     5 - 2 3 - 1 +0.8 +1.9 -1.5
  Jan 07, 2021 110   UNLV W 74-71 70%     6 - 2 4 - 1 +5.8 +1.2 +4.6
  Jan 09, 2021 110   UNLV W 83-80 70%     7 - 2 5 - 1 +5.8 +12.8 -7.0
  Jan 14, 2021 321   San Jose St. W 90-57 95%     8 - 2 6 - 1 +22.1 +4.8 +15.5
  Jan 16, 2021 321   San Jose St. W 88-61 95%     9 - 2 7 - 1 +16.1 +10.0 +6.8
  Jan 19, 2021 52   @ Utah St. L 64-83 35%     9 - 3 7 - 2 -6.8 -0.3 -6.1
  Jan 21, 2021 52   @ Utah St. W 84-76 35%     10 - 3 8 - 2 +20.2 +17.4 +2.5
  Jan 27, 2021 36   Boise St. L 73-75 47%    
  Jan 29, 2021 36   Boise St. L 73-75 47%    
  Feb 04, 2021 171   @ Wyoming W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 06, 2021 171   @ Wyoming W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 11, 2021 257   New Mexico W 77-61 94%    
  Feb 13, 2021 257   New Mexico W 77-61 94%    
  Feb 16, 2021 204   Northern Colorado W 77-64 90%    
  Feb 19, 2021 118   @ Nevada W 77-74 56%    
  Feb 21, 2021 118   @ Nevada W 77-74 56%    
  Feb 27, 2021 289   Air Force W 78-60 96%    
  Mar 01, 2021 289   Air Force W 78-60 96%    
Projected Record 18 - 6 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.7 4.4 16.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.8 12.5 17.8 7.8 0.6 41.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.0 11.2 12.6 4.1 0.2 31.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.1 3.2 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 8.1 17.3 25.6 25.4 15.7 5.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 88.2% 4.4    3.0 1.4 0.0
17-3 48.9% 7.7    2.9 3.9 0.8
16-4 13.9% 3.5    0.7 1.9 0.9 0.0
15-5 1.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 6.7 7.4 1.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 5.0% 92.0% 24.3% 67.7% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 89.5%
17-3 15.7% 73.6% 20.5% 53.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.1 66.8%
16-4 25.4% 48.3% 15.2% 33.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.8 4.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 13.2 39.0%
15-5 25.6% 27.3% 12.5% 14.8% 11.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 18.6 17.0%
14-6 17.3% 12.8% 8.2% 4.6% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.1 5.0%
13-7 8.1% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.6 1.1%
12-8 2.4% 3.3% 3.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
11-9 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.2% 13.4% 24.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.8 5.2 7.3 9.7 8.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 61.8 28.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 4.5 0.1 1.9 14.8 36.0 31.8 13.6 1.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 95.0% 7.5 0.2 1.1 6.3 12.7 29.3 21.3 17.5 5.9 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 88.9% 8.4 0.2 1.7 4.3 16.3 24.3 22.4 13.7 5.8 0.4