Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#222
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#274
Pace70.7#158
Improvement+1.0#102

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#157
First Shot+1.7#139
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#248
Layup/Dunks-3.8#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#62
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+1.2#88

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#293
First Shot-4.3#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks-3.8#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#316
Freethrows+3.3#19
Improvement-0.2#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 16.7% 26.5% 8.4%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.6% 24.6% 52.3%
First Four2.0% 2.7% 1.5%
First Round2.2% 3.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 47 - 58 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 04, 2020 37   @ Michigan St. L 76-83 6%     0 - 1 +6.1 +3.7 +3.0
  Dec 06, 2020 82   @ Notre Dame L 70-78 12%     0 - 2 +0.6 -3.4 +4.0
  Dec 09, 2020 97   Kent St. L 66-80 24%     0 - 3 -10.6 -11.3 +1.6
  Dec 12, 2020 262   @ Western Michigan W 67-57 52%     1 - 3 +5.4 -0.5 +7.0
  Dec 19, 2020 79   Wright St. L 70-93 19%     1 - 4 0 - 1 -17.7 -4.0 -12.2
  Dec 20, 2020 79   Wright St. L 72-85 19%     1 - 5 0 - 2 -7.7 -1.1 -6.0
  Dec 26, 2020 254   Oakland L 75-77 OT 64%     1 - 6 0 - 3 -9.6 -11.3 +1.9
  Dec 27, 2020 254   Oakland L 80-83 64%     1 - 7 0 - 4 -10.6 +2.1 -12.7
  Jan 15, 2021 271   Green Bay W 86-61 67%     2 - 7 1 - 4 +16.4 +8.6 +8.6
  Jan 16, 2021 271   Green Bay W 68-65 67%     3 - 7 2 - 4 -5.6 -1.7 -3.5
  Jan 22, 2021 254   @ Oakland W 77-76 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 254   @ Oakland W 77-76 45%    
  Jan 29, 2021 268   @ Youngstown St. W 77-76 48%    
  Jan 30, 2021 268   @ Youngstown St. W 77-76 48%    
  Feb 05, 2021 193   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 06, 2021 193   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 12, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 68-71 33%    
  Feb 13, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 68-71 33%    
  Feb 19, 2021 230   Robert Morris W 73-71 62%    
  Feb 20, 2021 230   Robert Morris W 73-71 62%    
Projected Record 8 - 12 5 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.3 0.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.0 0.7 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.9 2.9 0.3 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 7.0 1.2 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.5 7.8 5.5 0.2 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 7.6 12.4 1.1 22.1 8th
9th 0.8 7.0 14.2 3.5 0.0 25.6 9th
10th 5.1 9.5 4.7 0.2 19.6 10th
Total 6.0 17.5 27.0 24.9 16.8 6.6 1.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.3% 14.6% 14.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
7-11 6.6% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.9
6-12 16.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.1 0.8 15.9
5-13 24.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 24.2
4-14 27.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 26.6
3-15 17.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.4
2-16 6.0% 6.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.6%