Dixie St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#330
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#269
Pace74.5#64
Improvement-1.7#277

Offense
Total Offense-11.8#344
First Shot-11.0#346
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#223
Layup/Dunks-5.9#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#269
Freethrows-1.2#250
Improvement-1.2#266

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#201
First Shot+0.9#140
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#295
Layups/Dunks-1.8#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#77
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement-0.5#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 3.8% 11.9% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 1.9% 7.3% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 0.0% 5.9%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 45 - 66 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 278   North Dakota W 74-73 35%     1 - 0 -7.9 -5.3 -2.6
  Dec 12, 2020 335   @ Denver W 73-70 46%     2 - 0 -8.9 -13.0 +3.8
  Dec 17, 2020 189   @ Southern Utah L 78-85 13%     2 - 1 -7.5 -2.7 -4.4
  Dec 29, 2020 1   @ Gonzaga L 67-112 0.3%    2 - 2 -19.7 -7.1 -6.3
  Jan 13, 2021 242   New Mexico L 63-72 28%     2 - 3 -15.7 -11.6 -4.4
  Jan 15, 2021 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 63-73 14%    
  Jan 16, 2021 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 63-73 14%    
  Jan 22, 2021 142   Grand Canyon L 60-73 14%    
  Jan 23, 2021 142   Grand Canyon L 60-73 15%    
  Jan 29, 2021 282   @ California Baptist L 68-75 22%    
  Jan 30, 2021 282   @ California Baptist L 68-75 22%    
  Feb 05, 2021 256   Seattle L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 06, 2021 256   Seattle L 65-70 36%    
  Feb 12, 2021 245   @ Utah Valley L 64-73 16%    
  Feb 13, 2021 245   @ Utah Valley L 64-73 17%    
  Feb 19, 2021 325   Tarleton St. W 67-66 57%    
  Feb 20, 2021 325   Tarleton St. W 67-66 57%    
  Mar 05, 2021 117   New Mexico St. L 56-71 13%    
  Mar 06, 2021 117   New Mexico St. L 56-71 12%    
Projected Record 5 - 14 3 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.6 0.2 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 5.1 2.8 0.2 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.8 8.4 4.6 0.6 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 1.4 9.9 15.0 6.7 0.8 33.7 7th
8th 5.1 12.4 10.3 3.3 0.2 31.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 5.1 13.8 20.2 21.1 16.8 11.4 6.7 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 76.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 55.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 8.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 20.3% 20.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-7 0.4% 11.7% 11.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-8 1.4% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.3
7-9 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.0
6-10 6.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.6
5-11 11.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.3
4-12 16.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.7
3-13 21.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.0
2-14 20.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.2
1-15 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
0-16 5.1% 5.1
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%