East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#143
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#132
Pace70.1#174
Improvement-1.8#276

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#217
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#245
Layup/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#268
Freethrows-0.3#195
Improvement-1.8#284

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#85
First Shot+2.6#85
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#132
Layups/Dunks+1.3#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement+0.0#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 11.7 12.9
.500 or above 28.7% 48.0% 19.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 1.7% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.8% 20.3% 44.9%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 42 - 8
Quad 34 - 56 - 12
Quad 44 - 010 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 163   @ Charlotte W 66-57 48%     1 - 0 +10.9 -0.7 +12.1
  Dec 05, 2020 224   Radford W 63-50 76%     2 - 0 +7.1 -3.0 +12.0
  Dec 07, 2020 205   UNC Wilmington W 88-78 OT 73%     3 - 0 +5.2 +0.2 +3.7
  Dec 10, 2020 260   North Florida W 73-67 81%     4 - 0 -1.9 -6.3 +4.5
  Dec 16, 2020 61   @ SMU L 55-70 18%     4 - 1 0 - 1 -3.6 -11.9 +7.8
  Dec 19, 2020 210   James Madison W 73-64 73%     5 - 1 +4.0 -5.2 +9.0
  Dec 22, 2020 182   Tulane W 68-58 69%     6 - 1 1 - 1 +6.3 -1.0 +7.8
  Jan 02, 2021 182   @ Tulane L 56-60 56%     6 - 2 1 - 2 -4.0 -13.6 +9.5
  Jan 09, 2021 98   South Florida L 63-69 44%     6 - 3 1 - 3 -3.0 -6.0 +3.1
  Jan 24, 2021 63   Memphis L 65-71 33%    
  Jan 27, 2021 91   @ Central Florida L 63-69 25%    
  Jan 30, 2021 87   Tulsa L 62-65 43%    
  Feb 03, 2021 6   Houston L 58-72 11%    
  Feb 06, 2021 63   @ Memphis L 64-73 16%    
  Feb 08, 2021 61   SMU L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 13, 2021 129   @ Temple L 66-69 35%    
  Feb 17, 2021 6   @ Houston L 56-74 4%    
  Feb 21, 2021 65   Wichita St. L 67-72 36%    
  Feb 27, 2021 87   @ Tulsa L 60-67 23%    
  Mar 04, 2021 91   Central Florida L 65-68 45%    
  Mar 07, 2021 85   Cincinnati L 68-71 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 12 4 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 3.5 1.1 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 5.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.9 8.7 4.6 0.5 0.0 19.4 9th
10th 0.4 3.8 10.5 12.7 6.2 0.9 0.0 34.4 10th
11th 3.2 7.6 7.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 21.2 11th
Total 3.6 11.4 18.3 20.7 18.4 13.5 8.0 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 52.3% 6.2% 46.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 49.2%
10-10 0.5% 22.8% 3.9% 18.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 19.7%
9-11 1.5% 7.8% 3.4% 4.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 4.6%
8-12 4.0% 2.7% 1.5% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9 1.2%
7-13 8.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.0%
6-14 13.5% 0.5% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4
5-15 18.4% 0.2% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3
4-16 20.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 20.6
3-17 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.3
2-18 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
1-19 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%