East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#137
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#139
Pace66.7#256
Improvement+3.8#21

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#200
First Shot+0.5#164
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#266
Layup/Dunks-3.9#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#57
Freethrows-1.5#273
Improvement+4.6#7

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#93
First Shot+2.8#80
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#159
Layups/Dunks+3.9#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#179
Freethrows-1.8#280
Improvement-0.8#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 14.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 80.1% 90.2% 71.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 94.5% 78.5%
Conference Champion 19.6% 34.1% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.4% 14.9% 10.5%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 48 - 9
Quad 46 - 114 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 127   Abilene Christian L 47-70 46%     0 - 1 -20.2 -20.1 +0.2
  Nov 26, 2020 185   Austin Peay L 66-67 65%     0 - 2 -3.0 -9.1 +6.0
  Nov 27, 2020 265   Middle Tennessee W 57-43 78%     1 - 2 +7.7 -18.9 +25.3
  Dec 12, 2020 94   UAB L 61-65 43%     1 - 3 -0.3 -9.0 +8.7
  Dec 15, 2020 199   Gardner-Webb W 65-60 74%     2 - 3 +0.4 -9.1 +9.7
  Dec 22, 2020 7   @ Alabama L 69-85 6%     2 - 4 +3.4 +2.4 +1.5
  Dec 30, 2020 198   Western Carolina W 86-78 73%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +3.4 +4.5 -1.6
  Jan 02, 2021 120   @ UNC Greensboro W 71-61 37%     4 - 4 2 - 0 +15.5 +6.2 +9.7
  Jan 16, 2021 87   @ Furman L 66-78 27%     4 - 5 2 - 1 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6
  Jan 18, 2021 215   VMI W 92-81 75%     5 - 5 3 - 1 +5.8 +19.6 -12.9
  Jan 20, 2021 198   @ Western Carolina W 59-48 61%     6 - 5 4 - 1 +10.0 -14.5 +24.7
  Jan 23, 2021 87   Furman L 69-72 44%    
  Jan 27, 2021 173   Chattanooga W 70-65 70%    
  Jan 30, 2021 286   The Citadel W 84-73 89%    
  Feb 03, 2021 143   @ Mercer L 70-71 41%    
  Feb 06, 2021 173   @ Chattanooga W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 10, 2021 286   @ The Citadel W 83-75 71%    
  Feb 13, 2021 121   Wofford W 67-66 56%    
  Feb 17, 2021 143   Mercer W 72-70 63%    
  Feb 20, 2021 262   @ Samford W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 24, 2021 215   @ VMI W 74-70 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 120   UNC Greensboro W 66-65 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 9 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.0 7.6 4.0 1.0 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 10.5 10.6 3.5 0.3 27.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 11.2 8.3 2.2 0.0 25.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 6.7 4.3 0.3 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.1 0.1 6.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.2 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 2.2 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.3 8.5 12.0 18.4 20.9 17.8 11.2 4.3 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
14-4 93.7% 4.0    2.9 1.1
13-5 68.1% 7.6    4.1 3.2 0.4
12-6 28.4% 5.0    1.5 2.4 1.1
11-7 8.7% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2
10-8 0.4% 0.1    0.1
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 9.6 7.5 2.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 25.9% 25.9% 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
14-4 4.3% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 3.3 0.0%
13-5 11.2% 21.4% 21.4% 13.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 8.8
12-6 17.8% 16.5% 16.5% 13.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.2 14.8
11-7 20.9% 13.0% 13.0% 13.7 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.3 18.2
10-8 18.4% 9.0% 9.0% 14.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 16.7
9-9 12.0% 6.8% 6.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 11.2
8-10 8.5% 7.7% 7.7% 15.2 0.5 0.2 7.9
7-11 4.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 4.0 2.2 0.2 87.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.6 28.6 57.2 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%