Eastern Kentucky
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#152
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#89
Pace85.3#3
Improvement+0.8#122

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#208
First Shot-1.5#211
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#172
Layup/Dunks-5.8#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#91
Freethrows-1.6#272
Improvement+1.0#98

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#121
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#208
Layups/Dunks-0.3#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#21
Freethrows-1.4#266
Improvement-0.2#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.8% 18.9% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 98.6%
Conference Champion 4.9% 6.3% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round17.7% 18.8% 14.8%
Second Round1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 72.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 22 - 4
Quad 416 - 219 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 261   North Florida W 80-67 74%     1 - 0 +7.1 -5.9 +11.8
  Nov 27, 2020 335   Charleston Southern W 60-50 90%     2 - 0 -3.6 -20.6 +16.4
  Nov 30, 2020 46   @ Xavier L 96-99 OT 13%     2 - 1 +9.8 +6.6 +3.9
  Dec 02, 2020 316   @ South Carolina Upstate W 95-78 81%     3 - 1 +8.3 +3.3 +2.5
  Dec 07, 2020 190   Morehead St. W 71-68 69%     4 - 1 1 - 0 -1.3 -2.7 +1.3
  Dec 14, 2020 190   @ Morehead St. L 62-75 55%     4 - 2 1 - 1 -13.6 -12.0 -0.8
  Dec 22, 2020 306   High Point W 86-67 86%     5 - 2 +8.0 -4.1 +9.4
  Dec 30, 2020 230   Eastern Illinois W 69-61 76%     6 - 2 2 - 1 +1.5 -15.1 +15.8
  Jan 02, 2021 194   @ Austin Peay W 80-75 56%     7 - 2 3 - 1 +4.2 -3.1 +6.8
  Jan 07, 2021 189   Jacksonville St. W 69-66 OT 69%     8 - 2 4 - 1 -1.3 -13.9 +12.3
  Jan 09, 2021 304   Tennessee Tech W 90-80 86%     9 - 2 5 - 1 -1.0 +6.0 -7.7
  Jan 16, 2021 230   @ Eastern Illinois W 93-85 OT 64%     10 - 2 6 - 1 +5.2 -3.1 +6.5
  Jan 21, 2021 342   Tennessee Martin W 113-73 94%     11 - 2 7 - 1 +23.0 +19.0 +0.8
  Jan 28, 2021 304   @ Tennessee Tech W 80-72 73%    
  Jan 30, 2021 189   @ Jacksonville St. W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 04, 2021 194   Austin Peay W 80-75 72%    
  Feb 06, 2021 165   Murray St. W 77-74 66%    
  Feb 11, 2021 99   @ Belmont L 79-85 25%    
  Feb 13, 2021 303   @ Tennessee St. W 76-68 73%    
  Feb 18, 2021 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 20, 2021 342   @ Tennessee Martin W 87-73 88%    
  Feb 25, 2021 99   Belmont L 81-83 45%    
  Feb 27, 2021 303   Tennessee St. W 78-66 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 5 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.1 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 8.1 15.4 14.6 6.2 0.7 46.2 2nd
3rd 0.8 6.6 11.5 8.0 2.6 0.3 29.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.7 2.5 0.4 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.8 14.6 22.1 23.9 18.5 8.9 1.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 61.0% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.0
16-4 26.8% 2.4    0.9 1.4 0.1
15-5 7.1% 1.3    0.3 0.7 0.3
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.6 2.7 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.7% 36.0% 36.0% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.1
16-4 8.9% 30.9% 30.9% 13.3 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 6.1
15-5 18.5% 27.4% 27.4% 13.7 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.6 13.4
14-6 23.9% 19.2% 19.2% 14.1 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.4 0.1 19.3
13-7 22.1% 13.5% 13.5% 14.6 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.3 19.2
12-8 14.6% 7.4% 7.4% 15.1 0.1 0.9 0.2 13.5
11-9 6.8% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.3
10-10 3.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.8
9-11 0.4% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.1 0.4
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.7 4.5 7.0 4.6 1.0 82.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.5 5.6 41.1 46.8 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%