Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#302
Expected Predictive Rating-12.1#313
Pace75.4#48
Improvement+0.9#111

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#200
First Shot-4.5#286
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#31
Layup/Dunks+1.4#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#211
Freethrows-1.4#271
Improvement-0.4#206

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#335
First Shot-6.2#327
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#256
Layups/Dunks-6.7#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#111
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement+1.2#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.0% 15.7% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 3.4% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 3.9% 1.7%
First Round1.5% 2.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 45 - 56 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 277   @ Quinnipiac L 66-84 37%     0 - 1 -23.3 -8.1 -14.3
  Nov 27, 2020 41   @ Rutgers L 75-96 3%     0 - 2 -8.0 +1.0 -6.8
  Nov 30, 2020 171   @ Hofstra L 58-73 18%     0 - 3 -14.2 -14.8 +0.5
  Dec 05, 2020 58   @ Providence L 67-79 4%     0 - 4 -0.7 -4.8 +4.7
  Dec 08, 2020 331   Central Connecticut St. L 87-94 71%     0 - 5 0 - 1 -21.5 -0.4 -20.5
  Dec 09, 2020 331   Central Connecticut St. W 79-71 71%     1 - 5 1 - 1 -6.5 -3.3 -3.4
  Dec 19, 2020 161   Drexel L 68-85 25%     1 - 6 -18.7 -9.0 -9.0
  Dec 22, 2020 314   @ Fairfield W 69-65 48%     2 - 6 -4.3 -3.6 -0.6
  Jan 21, 2021 316   @ Merrimack L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 22, 2021 316   @ Merrimack L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 26, 2021 257   @ St. Francis (PA) L 76-81 30%    
  Jan 27, 2021 257   @ St. Francis (PA) L 76-81 30%    
  Feb 11, 2021 294   @ Wagner L 72-75 37%    
  Feb 20, 2021 250   Mount St. Mary's L 67-69 49%    
  Feb 21, 2021 250   Mount St. Mary's L 67-69 49%    
  Feb 25, 2021 307   @ Sacred Heart L 77-78 41%    
  Feb 26, 2021 307   @ Sacred Heart L 77-78 41%    
Projected Record 6 - 11 5 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.3 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 1.6 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.5 4.5 4.5 0.2 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.0 7.7 1.2 15.9 8th
9th 0.3 3.0 9.1 10.6 3.1 0.1 26.0 9th
10th 2.4 8.8 13.1 10.0 3.2 0.2 37.6 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.4 9.1 16.0 20.0 20.2 16.1 9.9 4.6 1.4 0.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.3% 15.0% 15.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 1.4% 16.5% 16.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.1
8-10 4.6% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.5 4.1
7-11 9.9% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.9 9.0
6-12 16.1% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.7 15.4
5-13 20.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 19.9
4-14 20.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.9
3-15 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.0
2-16 9.1% 9.1
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 2.4%