Florida A&M
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#280
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#204
Pace70.0#184
Improvement-0.4#217

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#292
First Shot-6.1#310
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#97
Layup/Dunks-3.9#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#322
Freethrows-3.1#324
Improvement-1.3#272

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#251
First Shot-1.1#204
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#276
Layups/Dunks-6.1#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#131
Freethrows+1.7#76
Improvement+0.9#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 15.7% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 31.6% 45.7% 17.1%
.500 or above in Conference 22.4% 35.5% 9.0%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.4% 13.2% 9.6%
First Round6.7% 8.4% 5.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 47 - 48 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 216   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 56-65 30%     0 - 1 -11.1 -14.9 +3.7
  Nov 29, 2020 99   @ Georgia L 75-85 10%     0 - 2 -3.6 +1.5 -4.5
  Dec 09, 2020 21   @ Oregon L 66-87 3%     0 - 3 -5.0 -4.1 +0.3
  Dec 12, 2020 26   @ Oklahoma L 54-85 3%     0 - 4 -16.1 -12.2 -4.1
  Dec 15, 2020 188   @ Austin Peay W 76-70 25%     1 - 4 +5.5 +1.3 +4.2
  Dec 18, 2020 59   @ Georgia Tech L 64-74 6%     1 - 5 +0.7 +3.2 -3.5
  Jan 02, 2021 62   @ South Carolina L 71-78 6%     1 - 6 +3.2 -2.8 +6.7
  Jan 10, 2021 345   South Carolina St. W 70-68 89%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -19.0 -20.3 +1.1
  Jan 16, 2021 318   @ N.C. A&T W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 17, 2021 318   @ N.C. A&T W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 06, 2021 238   @ NC Central L 66-70 30%    
  Feb 07, 2021 238   @ NC Central L 66-70 31%    
  Feb 20, 2021 318   N.C. A&T W 77-72 71%    
  Feb 21, 2021 318   N.C. A&T W 77-72 71%    
  Feb 22, 2021 238   NC Central L 68-69 52%    
  Feb 27, 2021 345   @ South Carolina St. W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 28, 2021 345   @ South Carolina St. W 77-67 79%    
Projected Record 7 - 10 6 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 7.2 5.1 1.2 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 9.6 17.3 6.3 0.4 34.5 3rd
4th 0.6 6.0 9.7 0.7 17.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.1 8.5 2.5 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.4 2.5 4.6 2.0 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 1.7 4.6 11.1 17.4 22.0 20.5 14.1 6.6 1.7 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 31.3% 0.5    0.3 0.2
9-7 17.7% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2
8-8 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 1.7% 33.4% 33.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.2
9-7 6.6% 28.6% 28.6% 15.9 0.1 1.7 4.7
8-8 14.1% 22.8% 22.8% 16.0 0.0 3.2 10.8
7-9 20.5% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 3.1 17.4
6-10 22.0% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 2.2 19.8
5-11 17.4% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 1.2 16.2
4-12 11.1% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.6 10.5
3-13 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.5
2-14 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 12.4 87.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 15.2 1.4 11.9 53.7 33.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.1%